The current extent of ice coverage is no different than it was 20 years ago:
And, it appears to be tracking the 2006 decline, which makes sense as the wind patterns are about the same, and wind has far more to do with the extent of ice coverage than temperatures of the kind we have today. As I have written repeatedly, wait until the end of September and we will be able to argue from actual data on ice loss. These hysterics are getting in the way of actual observations - what some of us like to think is the baseline for science. d. On Sun, Jul 11, 2010 at 10:57 PM, Tom Wigley <[email protected]> wrote: > John, > > You say ... > > > "we can expect permafrost to release large quantities of methane, from as > early as 2011 onwards, which will lead inexorably to runaway greenhouse > warming and abrupt climate change." > > This is guesswork, not science. > > I do not want to sign this letter. > > Tom. > > +++++++++++++ > > > John Nissen wrote: > >> >> In view of the situation in the Arctic, I would be grateful for support >> for an open letter to John Holdren, along the following lines. Please let >> me know whether you agree with this text and whether you'd be happy for me >> to add your name at the bottom. >> >> Cheers, >> >> John >> >> --- >> >> To John P Holdren, the Director of the Office of Science and Technology >> Policy >> >> Dear Dr Holdren, >> >> The Arctic sea ice acts as a giant mirror to reflect sunlight back into >> space and cool the Earth. The sea ice has been retreating far faster than >> the IPCC predicted only three years ago [1]. But, after the record retreat >> in September 2007, many scientists revised their predictions for the date of >> a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean from beyond the end of century to beyond >> 2030. Only a few scientists predicted this event for the coming decade, and >> they were ridiculed. >> >> In 2008 and 2009 there was only a slight recovery in end-summer sea ice >> extent, and it appears that the minimum 2010 extent will be close to a new >> record [2]. However the evidence from PIOMAS is that there has been a very >> sharp decline in volume [3], which is very worrying. >> >> The Arctic warming is now accelerating, and we can expect permafrost to >> release large quantities of methane, from as early as 2011 onwards, which >> will lead inexorably to runaway greenhouse warming and abrupt climate >> change. All this could become apparent if the sea ice retreats further than >> ever before this summer. We could be approaching a point of no return >> unless emergency action is taken. >> >> We suggest that the current situation should be treated as a warning for >> us all. The world community must rethink its attitude to fighting global >> warming by cutting greenhouse gas emissions sharply. However, even if >> emissions could be cut to zero, the existing CO2 in the atmosphere would >> continue to warm the planet for many decades. Geoengineering now appears >> the only means to cool the Arctic quickly enough. A geoengineering project >> of the intensity of the Manhattan Project is urgently needed to guard >> against a global catastrophe. >> >> Yours sincerely, >> >> John Nissen >> >> [Other names to be added here.] >> >> [1] Stroeve et al, May 2007 >> http://www.smithpa.demon.co.uk/GRL%20Arctic%20Ice.pdf >> >> [2] >> http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png >> >> [3] http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20100608_Figure5.png >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected]<geoengineering%[email protected]> >> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. >> > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<geoengineering%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > > -- David W. Schnare Center for Environmental Stewardship -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en.
