I see two viable outcomes. 1 The plane sits there until the public screams for it to fly. Politicians pay for it. 2 A Greenfinger philanthropist pays for it to fly. Having judged the mood correctly, nobody shoots it down. But the politicians make a big fuss because it's a threat to their authority. - so they come up with an actual governance regime (one that actually governs stuff). They probably pay for it, then too.
A On 3 Aug 2014 20:36, "Jamais Cascio" <[email protected]> wrote: > On Aug 3, 2014, at 7:56 AM, Andrew Lockley <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > I think the true governance work has a clear start date. It's when we > > have a shiny aerosol plane sitting on the runway, full tested and > > ready to deploy - with its performance well studied. > > So, let’s run a little thought experiment here. > > Your shiny aerosol plane (and corresponding systems of planes, source > materials, monitoring networks, etc.) gets the go-ahead, and begins our SSI > effort. > > Shortly thereafter, for reasons explained by “it’s the Earth’s climate, > stuff like this happens” an especially large (but not unprecedented) > hurricane hits Central America. Coincidentally, drought conditions in > western China worsen, as predicted rainfall doesn’t happen. Again, stuff > like this happens, and in fact the models that you’ve used and tested offer > a strong argument that these events (and similar minor to moderate weather > problems) really have little to do with the SSI program. > > Do you expect: > > 1) The global public will say “these are tragedies, but the science just > doesn’t support these events as being triggered by solar geoengineering,” > and focus on clean-up and carbon reduction while the geoengineers continue > their work. > > or > > 2) The global public will be screaming for the heads of whichever > countries, companies, and universities “did this to them,” no matter what > the science says, with the added bonus of accusations that this was all > carried out “behind the backs of the public” because of a lack of serious > civil society/governance work beforehand. > > You’re almost certainly correct that there are people advocating for more > governance research, conferences, blah blah blah in order to deflect, > delay, and avoid making hard decisions about both climate and > geoengineering (of all stripes, with solar/SSI being the lead boogeyman). > But that’s not the only reason there are people calling for more governance > work. There are some *very* difficult dilemmas that will arise around any > kind of geoengineering, especially solar/SSI, dilemmas that can’t be easily > modeled. > > Let’s imagine about another, related, thought experiment: > > Your shiny aerosol plane (etc.) is ready to go, but the governance and > oversight groups decide to hold off for now. Maybe that’s because they want > more time to study the economic/political complexities, maybe they truly > believe that the benefits aren’t worth the risks, but no matter: they said > NO. > > And while I’m sure most climate scientists involved in the research will > be good global citizens and be willing to put this on the shelf until > conditions change, not everyone is so compliant. You have at least one, > possibly several, “rogue” SSI projects get underway, run by good-hearted > people who truly and honestly think that the global oversight groups got it > wrong, and that they need to do this to save the world. There would likely > be quite a bit of sympathy from the more compliant scientists, too. > > What happens then? You won’t even have the cover of “the science says it’s > safe” if the governance groups (who, in this scenario, followed all of the > conditions of letting experiments work) have concluded that the risks are > greater than the benefits, or that the conclusions aren’t yet clear enough > to say yes. > > Governance isn’t about the ignorant masses stopping the sober, wise > scientists from doing what needs to be done to fix the planet, it’s about > trying to defuse and spread the blame and fear those ignorant masses will > generate when problems (related to the project or not) happen afterwards. > Think of governance as “desperation management.” > > -Jamais Cascio > > > > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
