30% strikes a balance between being serious enough that it indicates that they (whoever is doing it, anyone interested in betting on who's going to go first? :) ) probably going to go all the way, and occurring closer to the beginning than the end, so easier to estimate from political factors alone without having to guess about what techniques might be used.
Would you argue that I should lower this? Would 10% represent just as much of a commitment? On Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 1:42:07 AM UTC+12 Andrew Song wrote: > Why 30%? What if it's only 1% and deployment is measurable, recorded, and > verified? > > On Sat, Jul 8, 2023 at 4:19 AM mako yass <[email protected]> wrote: > >> I've created a prediction market about when Solar Radiation Management >> will first be "seriously" deployed (for a definition of "seriously", see >> the question). It's just on Manifold, so it's not using real money, but >> Manifold players take the game pretty seriously, so I expect it to still >> produce a somewhat meaningful probability distribution over possible dates. >> In the very least, members of the list may find it fun to bet on. >> >> The prediction market: >> https://manifold.markets/makoyass/when-will-serious-deployment-of-sol >> >> ad astra. >> system designer mako yass <https://aboutmako.makopool.com/> >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/b3d9a53f-2a84-4980-9420-290268ee2bb9n%40googlegroups.com >> >> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/b3d9a53f-2a84-4980-9420-290268ee2bb9n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >> . >> > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/101f0bcc-85ce-48f5-b52c-f659ff415fa5n%40googlegroups.com.
