30pc of the increase since 1990 is around 11y of global warming - roughly 1/6 of all GHGs emitted or around 0.2C of cooling. The most popular votes are late 2020s. The equipment to do this work simply doesn't exist - it's not even at the detailed design stage. To get this done by the late 2020s would require an Apollo style engineering project (probably smaller expenditure, probably larger fleet tonnage - but you get the idea), followed by the most sudden global cooling since Pinatubo - all without triggering a war among nuclear armed superpowers who are currently having the largest land war since WWII.
I'm at the gung ho end of gung ho, and even I can confidently say that simply isn't going to happen. Andrew Lockley On Sat, 8 Jul 2023, 22:54 mako yass, <[email protected]> wrote: > 30% strikes a balance between being serious enough that it indicates that > they (whoever is doing it, anyone interested in betting on who's going to > go first? :) ) probably going to go all the way, and occurring closer to > the beginning than the end, so easier to estimate from political factors > alone without having to guess about what techniques might be used. > > Would you argue that I should lower this? Would 10% represent just as much > of a commitment? > > On Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 1:42:07 AM UTC+12 Andrew Song wrote: > >> Why 30%? What if it's only 1% and deployment is measurable, recorded, and >> verified? >> >> On Sat, Jul 8, 2023 at 4:19 AM mako yass <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I've created a prediction market about when Solar Radiation Management >>> will first be "seriously" deployed (for a definition of "seriously", see >>> the question). It's just on Manifold, so it's not using real money, but >>> Manifold players take the game pretty seriously, so I expect it to still >>> produce a somewhat meaningful probability distribution over possible dates. >>> In the very least, members of the list may find it fun to bet on. >>> >>> The prediction market: >>> https://manifold.markets/makoyass/when-will-serious-deployment-of-sol >>> >>> ad astra. >>> system designer mako yass <https://aboutmako.makopool.com/> >>> >>> -- >>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>> an email to [email protected]. >>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/b3d9a53f-2a84-4980-9420-290268ee2bb9n%40googlegroups.com >>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/b3d9a53f-2a84-4980-9420-290268ee2bb9n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>> . >>> >> -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to [email protected]. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/101f0bcc-85ce-48f5-b52c-f659ff415fa5n%40googlegroups.com > <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/101f0bcc-85ce-48f5-b52c-f659ff415fa5n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> > . > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/CAJ3C-05ZwUb6_dWgdY9gPRAx-R0aTM92PPR%3D2-Rqp2MYE%3DkJEg%40mail.gmail.com.
