Agree with Andrew on this. I don't think any scientific or engineering research supports 30% (ie. 0.2C) cooling from 1990 baseline in any time within the next decade. The prediction market should really *start* at 2030 (maybe 2035, really), and go in interval stages every five years.
See Smith & Wagner (2018) for a comprehensive analysis of a 15 year ramp-up scenario, starting at 2033. They even argue 2033 is far too soon, and in that linear ramp up scenario it still takes till 2042 to reach -0.2C cooling. Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deployment - IOPscience <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d> On Sunday, 9 July 2023 at 8:04:59 am UTC+10 Andrew Lockley wrote: > 30pc of the increase since 1990 is around 11y of global warming - roughly > 1/6 of all GHGs emitted or around 0.2C of cooling. The most popular votes > are late 2020s. The equipment to do this work simply doesn't exist - it's > not even at the detailed design stage. To get this done by the late 2020s > would require an Apollo style engineering project (probably smaller > expenditure, probably larger fleet tonnage - but you get the idea), > followed by the most sudden global cooling since Pinatubo - all without > triggering a war among nuclear armed superpowers who are currently having > the largest land war since WWII. > > I'm at the gung ho end of gung ho, and even I can confidently say that > simply isn't going to happen. > > Andrew Lockley > > On Sat, 8 Jul 2023, 22:54 mako yass, <[email protected]> wrote: > >> 30% strikes a balance between being serious enough that it indicates that >> they (whoever is doing it, anyone interested in betting on who's going to >> go first? :) ) probably going to go all the way, and occurring closer to >> the beginning than the end, so easier to estimate from political factors >> alone without having to guess about what techniques might be used. >> >> Would you argue that I should lower this? Would 10% represent just as >> much of a commitment? >> >> On Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 1:42:07 AM UTC+12 Andrew Song wrote: >> >>> Why 30%? What if it's only 1% and deployment is measurable, recorded, >>> and verified? >>> >>> On Sat, Jul 8, 2023 at 4:19 AM mako yass <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> I've created a prediction market about when Solar Radiation Management >>>> will first be "seriously" deployed (for a definition of "seriously", see >>>> the question). It's just on Manifold, so it's not using real money, but >>>> Manifold players take the game pretty seriously, so I expect it to still >>>> produce a somewhat meaningful probability distribution over possible dates. >>>> In the very least, members of the list may find it fun to bet on. >>>> >>>> The prediction market: >>>> https://manifold.markets/makoyass/when-will-serious-deployment-of-sol >>>> >>>> ad astra. >>>> system designer mako yass <https://aboutmako.makopool.com/> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "geoengineering" group. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send >>>> an email to [email protected]. >>>> To view this discussion on the web visit >>>> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/b3d9a53f-2a84-4980-9420-290268ee2bb9n%40googlegroups.com >>>> >>>> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/b3d9a53f-2a84-4980-9420-290268ee2bb9n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >>>> . >>>> >>> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an >> email to [email protected]. >> > To view this discussion on the web visit >> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/101f0bcc-85ce-48f5-b52c-f659ff415fa5n%40googlegroups.com >> >> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/101f0bcc-85ce-48f5-b52c-f659ff415fa5n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer> >> . >> > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/geoengineering/5a09f502-c424-4440-b30a-af020c22b9ban%40googlegroups.com.
