On Feb 9, 3:17 pm, James Annan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Crops are grown on an annual cycle,
> machinery only last a few years (in fact astonishingly little time on
> efficient agribusiness, as reliability and peak performance are critical
> factors).
True for some crops, but not for tree and vine crops. A vineyard costs
a lot to establish (posts, wire, irrigation) and takes 5 years to
reach full production, 10 years to optimum quality.
> But still, there are
> few government policies that last more than 5 years and the trend in
> climate change is really very small over that sort of time scale.
That's arguable. Governments tend to tinker around within established
frameworks. Wholesale restructuring of policies tends to happen much
less frequently than you suggest.
> [To be clear, I'm talking not about pushing seasonal forecasting up to
> the 5 year time scale, but more like interpolating the 100 year climate
> change scenarios down to perhaps 20 years.]
I think money spent on multi-year to decadal forecasting would be
extremely well spent. Topoclimate studies can also have short-term
payoffs through encouraging optimum land uses, not simply as
adaptation tools.
> The papers I alluded to earlier present 90% confidence intervals of
> 0.3-1.3C and 0.5-1.1C over the 30 year interval 1990s-2020s. That is,
> they are centred on 0.8C in 30 years, which I (and indeed the IPCC)
> think is unreasonably high
Wasn't there a recent paper suggesting that warming & sea level rise
was actually tracking the high end of IPCC projections? Rahmsdorf?
Can't find the reference, and I'm supposed to be doing something
else...
Gareth
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