On Feb 8, 7:07 pm, James Annan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> What adaptation do you think is required?
>
> As Michael says, there isn't really much preparation to do. Few
> decisions need to be taken more than a decade out and those that do,
> there are probably much larger uncertainties than climate change anyway.
It's more about giving ourselves the tools to enable adaptation. If we
can make multi-year forecasts of climate excursions, they become
relevant for all sorts of short-term adaptation. In the case of
Australia, if models suggested prolonged drought in a given area, then
early steps to save water might prevent severe hardship later.
Equally, it might help to prevent government compensating farmers for
drought losses when it might be better to assist them to move to other
land uses.
The primary early adaptation I see is agricultural. It doesn't take
big shifts in climate to change the economics of crop yield/quality.
Winter chilling is important to fruit set in many crops - reduce it,
and you reduce growers income directly. And it doesn't have to a
permanent shift: a change from one year in ten with poor fruit set to
four in ten might be enough to make growing that crop uneconomic. With
grapes, for example, excessive summer heat changes wine quality
markedly for the worse (unless you like drinking alcoholic jam).
This stuff isn't glamourous, won't solve anything in global terms, but
it will make adapting to change easier. That's got to be a good thing.
> > I don't want to downplay it too much - in fact it's an area I'm
> increasingly interested in for a number of reasons
What are those reasons, James?
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