On Feb 10, 10:24 am, "crandles" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > The 100 year event would > only be up to an estimated 10% chance in that 5 year period. Would > such information change farmers' decisions as to what crops to grow > and if so would there be much benefit? > > So is there even a case for suggesting that even if 'it gives better > skill than climatological persistence!'.... ?
Farmers are obviously concerned about risk of extreme damage (floods etc), but as you suggest, they happen anyway and changes in frequency of the size you describe are unlikely to drive decision making in the short term. Multi-year to decadal forecasting is directly relevant, however, since if it can be made to work, it can deliver really useful information. To use my vineyard example, if a five to ten year forecast suggests significant extra summer heat, it might be prudent to graft vines over to a different variety - or at least hedge your bets. This sort of information would also be valuable to insurers. There seem, from a quick Google, to be at least two groups investigating, one at the Met Office and one at the Max Plank: http://www.atm.damtp.cam.ac.uk/shuckburgh/ESM/poster/murphy.pdf https://www.mpimet.mpg.de/fileadmin/staff/pohlmannholger/pdf/pohlmann_keenlyside_hawaii_2004.pdf I particularly like the quote from Niels Bohr on the last page of the second pdf: "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
