>>> [To be clear, I'm talking not about pushing seasonal forecasting up >>> to the 5 year time scale, but more like interpolating the 100 year >>> climate change scenarios down to perhaps 20 years.] >> >> I think money spent on multi-year to decadal forecasting would be >> extremely well spent.
>Only if it gives better skill than climatological persistence! Suppose we start doing more modelling like http:// attribution.cpdn.org/ but aimed at the probability of risks in 10 years time compared to 5 years time compared to now. The extension page http://attribution.cpdn.org/extension.php seems to indicate that the risk of flooding depended a great deal on the non- industrial climate used. So does this indicate there is a possibility of gaining skill over climatological persistence? Even if you suppose that this sort of modelling has skill over and above 'interpolating the 100 year climate change scenarios down to perhaps 20 years'. Suppose it was good enough to say things like in one area of 500 miles square the risk of a 100 year flood was double the probability in the 5 years timeframe compared to 10 year timeframe or now. While in a different area, the risk of a heat wave is reduced by half in 5 years time compared to now or 10 years. I have no idea or expertise as to whether such a level of skill is likely to become possible but I would be inclined to doubt it could happen soon. However, suppose it was possible. Would such information make lots of difference by allowing us to concentrate our disaster prevention efforts on more likely risks? Or would we ignore it and continue concentrating on disasters that have just occurred and where the 20 year trend is believed to be upwards? The 100 year event would only be up to an estimated 10% chance in that 5 year period. Would such information change farmers' decisions as to what crops to grow and if so would there be much benefit? So is there even a case for suggesting that even if 'it gives better skill than climatological persistence!'.... ? --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
