> aside: You seem to be conversing with yourself here. Are you replying > to emails on the list?
Yes and yes, I am replying to emails on the list (twice to the same message by James, making different points, and once to Alastair). But I am also thinking hard about my own analogy and how much it makes sense. > The range of tropical storm activity may well increase. The first > hurricane in recorded history struck the Brasilian coast two years > ago. > > http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/02apr_hurricane.htm I think it's very likely to increase because of the strong link with SST's. Whether damage from Atlantic cyclones would increase is I think somewhat more uncertain, because the storm path is so important. > The idea that a gradual shift to slightly more pleasant > climates in the high latitudes and slightly less pleasant in the low > latitudes differs considerably from the consensus. I think there's a consensus that overall countries closer to the equator will suffer more / benefit less than countries further away from the equator. About the size of net damage/benefit, there is no consensus. The peer reviewed literature does include estimates implying a net benefit (see the paper by Tol I quoted earlier). > On the whole, the ground will be drier, the seasonality of water > supplies will be shifted toward winter, decreasing agricultural > productivity; I think that's the projection for the UK (where the seasonality of water supplies is concerned). Could you provide a reference indicating that this applies to the whole world, rather than, as I suspect without googling and little evidence, latitudes beweent 20 degrees and 70 degrees. I agree that dryness in the summer is an issue for agricultural productivity, it's the major reason why I think that the overall impact of climate change on agriculture hangs so much on the extent to which irrigation can be usefully employed. > the proportion of rainfall from severe events will > increase I've tried to find more on this, but so far I haven't. It still seems to me that this is quite intuitive, though admittedly, comparing winter rain in the UK and Germany with summer thunderstorms is not very good evidence. > causing greater flood and wind damage; Wind damage from extra-tropical storms does not have much to do with heavy rainfall, as far as I am aware. I think in the UK rain related flooding in the winter may increase due to greater overall rainfall in winter. > sea levels will rise True, though that's not a change in extreme events per se. > stressing not only land use but water supplies for a vast coastal > populations, and already stressed ecosystems will lose many species > and possibly go into sufficient decline as to impact human well-being > (c.f., Louisiana). I think it's plausible that species with small ranges (and mostly also small physical sizes) might become extinct due to rapid climate change. I am rather less convinced that climate change would be much of a factor for large species (like polar bears), and also I am rather skeptical of the idea that species loss per se has much of an economic effect on human welfare (as opposed to the effect exerted by people knowing that species have been lost). I am, however, ready to concede that this is something requiring the kind of judgment where I think reasonable people can disagree. I just don't see the mechanism by which species loss whould negatively impact humanity. On the other hand, maybe I am overlooking something. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
