On Apr 8, 9:29 am, "[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
> Is there any evidence to suggest that climate change will impact
> "extreme events" (extreme heat, cold, precipitation, storms)
> significantly worse than would be expected from an equivalent
> temperature change due to either distance from the equator or the
> season of the year?
The SPM for WG1 says that "Heavy precipitation events.Frequency (or
proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) increases over most
areas " is "likely". In other words, even if total rainfall stays the
same, it'll fall in heavier events - an intensification of the process
which will (or might) have an important impact on run off and erosion.
In NZ, recent work by NIWA suggests that 1-in-20 year floods could be
1-in-5 year (IIRC) in the 2080s, and not purely because of an increase
in rainfall.
I suspect the temperature effect will be more like moving latitude
closer to the equator - more warm days, longer summers, less frost,
etc, which means that extreme heat records for any given place are
likely to be increased as warming continues. Storms are something else
again: storm tracks could change, and intensities increase with SSTs.
That's my reading of it, anyway...
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