[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>> I'm not sure what you are getting at with "distance from the equator or
>> the season of the year".
>
> The seasons and latitude give an idea of what to expect from 2-3C
> temperature difference. What I am asking is whether there's good
> evidence that extremes would change in a detrimental manner beyond
> what would be expected from what we can observe in differences between
> the seasons and in latitude?
>
> I've looked at the TAR summary, and I think all of the points there
> are covered by what would be expected from seasonal/latitudinal
> precedent.
>
> For example, look at rainfall. I am pretty sure that summer rainfall
> is more concentrated in a few heavy precipitation events than winter
> rainfall, and likewise, precipitation on the equator is extremely
> concentrated into short events. Therefore this change in extremes is
> entirely what would be expected either from moving 500 km towards the
> equator or a few weeks in time during the year, wouldn't it?
>
My UK-centric background makes me think of winter as bringing most wind
damage and flooding (although the latter isn't necessarily 1-1 with peak
rainfall). IIRC heavy snow collapsed several buildings in Europe no so
long ago - not that I'm saying it was due to climate change rather than
inadequate construction, but just pointing out that this is when damage
occurs.
> On top of that, it's not necessarily a negative change at all. I
> believe that people generally prefer sunshine to rain, and half an
> hour of heavy rain a day to keep things lush, and the rest of the day
> sunshine, would be preferable to constant drizzle.
I don't think anyone is really that concerned about preferences, rather
the issue is whether infrastructure is able to withstand it and the
effects on agriculture, water supplies and stuff like that (or, to put a
more positive spin, what we have to do to adjust).
James
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