[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: >>> Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are causing global >>> shifts in rainfall patterns and contributing to wetter weather over >>> the UK, climate scientists say today. >> All kidding aside, I trust the work coming out of Hadley. > > It is rather frustrating to have access to stories about a paper, but > not the paper itself. > > Now the Hadley Centre have got this graph on their site: > > http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata/HadCM3_IS92a_map_P_ann_19601990_20702100.gif > > It seems to indicate that in fact annual rainfall over the UK will be > little changed (which I gather is because wetter winters get > compensated by drier summers). > > In so far as flooding in the UK correlates with 5 day winter > precipitation totals with a present return period of 50 years, the > link I found earlier thanks to Adam would seem to give a helpful > quantification, namely and roughly reading off their figure, said > return period should fall from 50 years to between 30 and 45 years > depending on the exact location in the UK. > > http://prudence.dmi.dk/public/publications/FreiEtAl_subm.pdf > > I've got this niggly suspicion that the Nature paper is about > attribution and that attribution can be made primarily due to changed > rainfall patterns outside the UK, and it's got very little to say > directly about flooding in the UK. > > And while the above paper does have something relevant to say, being 2 > years old is maybe too old as far as the media is concerned and what > it does have to say about flooding is far too "unsensationalist" to > hang a story on. >
Authors are usually happy to send copies of the paper if asked politely (and most journals explicitly endorse this sort of behaviour). People like me might also be persuaded by a sly email :-) FWIW the url works for me from home, which seems like a mistake. Have you actually tried? http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v448/n7152/full/nature06025.html But briefly, the "detection" is only in latitude bands, and only annual average (because finer sampling is too noisy). It just talks about a small but detectable increase in annual average in this latitude - I think I already mentioned a figure of 60mm per century. It has no direct relationship to any prediction of changes in summer extremes in the UK, although arguably it marginally raises confidence that the models are doing plausible things. James --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
