> > Greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are causing global > > shifts in rainfall patterns and contributing to wetter weather over > > the UK, climate scientists say today. > All kidding aside, I trust the work coming out of Hadley.
It is rather frustrating to have access to stories about a paper, but not the paper itself. Now the Hadley Centre have got this graph on their site: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeldata/HadCM3_IS92a_map_P_ann_19601990_20702100.gif It seems to indicate that in fact annual rainfall over the UK will be little changed (which I gather is because wetter winters get compensated by drier summers). In so far as flooding in the UK correlates with 5 day winter precipitation totals with a present return period of 50 years, the link I found earlier thanks to Adam would seem to give a helpful quantification, namely and roughly reading off their figure, said return period should fall from 50 years to between 30 and 45 years depending on the exact location in the UK. http://prudence.dmi.dk/public/publications/FreiEtAl_subm.pdf I've got this niggly suspicion that the Nature paper is about attribution and that attribution can be made primarily due to changed rainfall patterns outside the UK, and it's got very little to say directly about flooding in the UK. And while the above paper does have something relevant to say, being 2 years old is maybe too old as far as the media is concerned and what it does have to say about flooding is far too "unsensationalist" to hang a story on. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
