James Annan wrote: > No GCM indicates a rapid collapse due to a CO2 increase, but note that > they also don't (generally) include the effect of Greenland melting. > However, AIUI you have to add an awful lot of melt water to get a rapid > shutdown.
But, some models do show a slowing trend and usually are still on a downward trend line at the end of the model simulation periods. > Really I'm a bit surprised this dead horse is being flogged so hard - > but I suppose having got NERC to cough up millions for the RAPID > project, there would be too much egg on faces if people admitted it was > already thoroughly debunked with years(?) still to run on the project. I submit that the very sharp decline in sea-ice seen this year is not a "dead horse". The models didn't forecast it, so you are left with the possibility that there are some real problems with the models. Which implies that your model based conclusions are also incorrect. Andy Revkin just wrote an article about this summer's decline, in which he references many of the well known experts in the study of sea-ice: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/02/science/earth/02arct.html The article mentions the large outflow of sea-ice thru the Fram Strait, which will add considerable fresh water to the NA Sub Polar Gyre. The cover picture shows a tongue of sea-ice folowing thru the Fram Strait seen off the coast of Northeast Greenland. That's happened for much of the melt season. That will surely have some impact on the THC in today's world. If the melting of sea-ice continues to result in further declines in extent, surely the outflow thru the Fram Strait would continue and increase. Note that the outflow does not stop at the end of the melt season, but continues thru the winter months as well. E. S. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
