James Annan wrote:
> Eric Swanson wrote:
> > James Annan wrote:
> >
> >> No GCM indicates a rapid collapse due to a CO2 increase, but note that
> >> they also don't (generally) include the effect of Greenland melting.
> >> However, AIUI you have to add an awful lot of melt water to get a rapid
> >> shutdown.
> >
> > But, some models do show a slowing trend and usually are still on a
> > downward trend line at the end of the model simulation periods.
> >
>
> Oh, they almost all do (I think there may be one that goes up a little).
But, the models have not done well at forecasting the rate of decline
in the sea-ice. Are these models then to be trusted in their
forecasts of the timing of future changes in the THC?
> > I submit that the very sharp decline in sea-ice seen this year is not
> > a "dead horse".
>
> And what's that got to do with the price of fish?
That would depend upon whether one is buying or selling. Or, whether
one is marketing one's ideas vs. another's. We disagree about the
value of red herrings, while spurring dead horses back to life.
My idea is that if the sea-ice melts enough, there will be a larger
flow of sea-ice and surface water from the Arctic into the North
Atlantic, which would tend to lower the salinity of these surface
waters. My idea is that one result of this would be a reduction in
the THC sinking in locations as we have found it to occur, such as the
GIN Seas and the Labrador Sea. Others have suggested that a result of
such a THC shutdown would be colder conditions in N. Europe, such as
the Little Ice Age (or worse).
Your idea seems to be that this can not happen, perhaps resulting
instead in a slight cooling, which would offset the forecast warming
due to AGW. Of course, should the cooling occur before the warming
really begins to kick in, this scenario might not come to pass, would
it?
E. S.
--~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated
venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of
global environmental change.
Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the
submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not
gratuitously rude.
To post to this group, send email to [email protected]
To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
For more options, visit this group at
http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
-~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
