What consensus are you talking about? Consensus of professional
demographers or consensus of gloomy environmentalists? World population
growth has been slowing for many decades. UN population division projects
about half as many people added (net - about 1 Billion) between 2025 and
2050 as between 2000 and 2025 (net - about 2 Billion). Projections after
2050 are pure conjecture, but if you extrapolate the trend you get a plateau
at 9Billion or so starting mid-Century. That's the consensus view among
professional demographers, as far as I know.
Thanks,
-dl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Adams" <[email protected]>
Newsgroups: gmane.science.general.global-change
To: "globalchange" <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, January 10, 2010 9:43 AM
Subject: [Global Change: 3443] Future population plateau
Gore in his new book "Our Choice" seems to take it for granted that
world population will plateau at a bit above 9 billion in 2050 and
stay there till 2100. He seems to think this will happen because girls
will be educated, women will be empowered, and children will survive
as in the current 1st world.
I wonder why he adopts such a rosy senario in this one area.
There seems to be a consensus that population will reach 9 billion
around 2050. But after that, the estimates run up to 14 billion.
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