The wikafantasy projections are not those of the 2004 UN report at
all. They take population projections to 2050 that are reproduced
from a 2002 report as an example of hedging bets - and extrapolate the
projections to 2100.
Not to mince words - someone has deliberately distorted the report.
The real graph can be found at figure 9.
'In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075.
Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion
projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections
are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population
declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a
level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from
the projected 2050 figure.'
read the report at:
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
These projections are of course sensitive to actual replacement rates
but it is true that lower fertility rates result from the sort of
social factors mentioned by Al Gore. Economic development is
essential to a continuing decline in fertility - which makes attempts
to lower global economic growth not only potentially genocidal but
self defeating.
On Jan 11, 1:43 am, Tom Adams <[email protected]> wrote:
> Gore in his new book "Our Choice" seems to take it for granted that
> world population will plateau at a bit above 9 billion in 2050 and
> stay there till 2100. He seems to think this will happen because girls
> will be educated, women will be empowered, and children will survive
> as in the current 1st world.
>
> I wonder why he adopts such a rosy senario in this one area.
>
> There seems to be a consensus that population will reach 9 billion
> around 2050. But after that, the estimates run up to 14 billion.
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