On Jan 10, 10:57 am, "Don Libby" <[email protected]> wrote:
> What consensus are you talking about? Consensus of professional
> demographers or consensus of gloomy environmentalists?
I was referring to the UN and US estimates of about 9 billion for 2050
as the consensus estimate:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#Forecast
> World population
> growth has been slowing for many decades. UN population division projects
> about half as many people added (net - about 1 Billion) between 2025 and
> 2050 as between 2000 and 2025 (net - about 2 Billion). Projections after
> 2050 are pure conjecture,
You are making my point! Gore treats 9 billion in 2100 as it it were a
firm estimate, not an iffy conjecture.
> but if you extrapolate the trend you get a plateau
> at 9Billion or so starting mid-Century. That's the consensus view among
> professional demographers, as far as I know.
The UN report featured in wikipedia puts the 2100 population between 5
and 14 billion by 2100:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-Population-1800-2100.png
>
> Thanks,
> -dl
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Tom Adams" <[email protected]>
> Newsgroups: gmane.science.general.global-change
> To: "globalchange" <[email protected]>
> Sent: Sunday, January 10, 2010 9:43 AM
> Subject: [Global Change: 3443] Future population plateau
>
> > Gore in his new book "Our Choice" seems to take it for granted that
> > world population will plateau at a bit above 9 billion in 2050 and
> > stay there till 2100. He seems to think this will happen because girls
> > will be educated, women will be empowered, and children will survive
> > as in the current 1st world.
>
> > I wonder why he adopts such a rosy senario in this one area.
>
> > There seems to be a consensus that population will reach 9 billion
> > around 2050. But after that, the estimates run up to 14 billion.
>
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