On Jan 10, 8:14 pm, Robbo <[email protected]> wrote:
> The wikafantasy projections are not those of the 2004 UN report at
> all.
The wiki projections are obviously based on Figure 6 of the 2004 UN
report.
You must have overlooked Figure 6.
> They take population projections to 2050 that are reproduced
> from a 2002 report as an example of hedging bets - and extrapolate the
> projections to 2100.
>
> Not to mince words - someone has deliberately distorted the report.
> The real graph can be found at figure 9.
>
> 'In these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075.
> Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion
> projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections
> are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population
> declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a
> level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from
> the projected 2050 figure.'
>
> read the report
> at:http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300...
>
> These projections are of course sensitive to actual replacement rates
> but it is true that lower fertility rates result from the sort of
> social factors mentioned by Al Gore. Economic development is
> essential to a continuing decline in fertility - which makes attempts
> to lower global economic growth not only potentially genocidal but
> self defeating.
>
> On Jan 11, 1:43 am, Tom Adams <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
>
> > Gore in his new book "Our Choice" seems to take it for granted that
> > world population will plateau at a bit above 9 billion in 2050 and
> > stay there till 2100. He seems to think this will happen because girls
> > will be educated, women will be empowered, and children will survive
> > as in the current 1st world.
>
> > I wonder why he adopts such a rosy senario in this one area.
>
> > There seems to be a consensus that population will reach 9 billion
> > around 2050. But after that, the estimates run up to 14 billion.- Hide
> > quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
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