On Jan 15, 11:35 am, "Per Edman" <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Thu, 14 Jan 2010 17:40:51 +0100, Alastair
>
> Any idea what I could look for to find those models?
> Was it perhaps one of these:
> http://climateprediction.net/content/millennium-experiment-famous?
>
> I'm running Climateprediction myself and if I reason correctly, it would
> only make sense that some early calibration models WOULD run away, or run
> down, until reasonable parameters were found. Bruteforce is still a
> workable method. The model I'm currently running, however, is not 100%
> cloud covered at 800C.
It was the earliest model which had a bug where the slab ocean was
mishandling the Humboldt Current - a sort of super El Nino.
The catch is, because those models runs were faulty, they were thrown
away! (Sort of like the original satellite measurements of the ozone
hole!)
I can't believe that your model is running with a global average
temperature of 800 C, or even 800 K. At 80C I would have expected
total cloud cover but it possible that the condensation level at that
temperature is too high for clouds to form. But at what temperature
and whether a model shows total cloud would depend on how it is
constructed. We have no guarantee that the model would reflect
reality either way. We do, of course, know that Venus it totally cloud
covered, so there is evidence that it can happen.
But at present I only have strong grounds for believing that at a high
enough surface temperature the earth would be cloud covered. I cannot
prove it.
Cheers, Alastair.
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