> Accurate because when the model runs for historical years, its data
> corresponds to known data for those years. You could consider that
> calibration, of course, but once the model runs as the climate has
> actually run for the past years in the simulation, you would have to come
> up with reasons why model and reality would drastically diverge at exactly
> the current date.
Considering that the forcings are so poorly known, particularly
aerosols, the calibration is awfully poor.
So why might the model and reality diverge at exactly the current
date? Because the model can be made to agree with reality up to
exactly the current date by fiddling with the assumed forcing input.
You should be aware of the fact that there are plenty of models that
agree well with the past up to "exactly the current date" and then
diverge from each other.
Besides, this thread is about runaway warming and therefore about
conditions far removed from the calibration period.
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