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Undilah PAS : MENENTANG KEZALIMAN & MENEGAKKAN KEADILAN
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KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 23 (AFP) - Asia's economic crisis helped toppled ageing
authoritarian leaders in Indonesia
and Thailand and might just do the same in Malaysia eventually, analysts
say.
For while the Malaysian economy is rapidly recovering, they say, without
the economic crisis there would have been
no Anwar Ibrahim crisis.
A united opposition alliance -- galvanised by the sacking and jailing of
the former deputy premier -- sees its best ever
chance of ending the National Front's political domination in November 29
parliamentary and state polls.
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, whose National Front coalition now holds
166 of 192 parliamentary seats, is
certain to win. But analysts say if he suffers a serious loss of seats or
loses control of two more state assemblies,
pressure may grow before ruling party elections next year for a change at
the top.
That is still a big "if" but what seems certain is that Mahathir would be
savouring the prospect of another landslide
without the Anwar saga. Another certainty, according to both sides in the
poll battle and analysts, is that this will be
the nastiest and dirtiest election in the country's history.
Sani Hamid of Singapore-based Standard and Poor's MMS, said the National
Front "would have swept back to
power if not for the Anwar saga."
"We have not seen people on the streets in decades but now we have people
demonstrating as a signal of their
discontent.
"Anwar has been the rallying point behind the opposition."
Mahathir, 73, acknowledged this week that before the economic crisis hit
Asia, his plan was to hand over power to
Anwar in 1998.
Bruce Gale, of the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy in Singapore,
said Mahathir brought Anwar -- a highly
popular Islamic youth leader in the 1970s -- into government to get him on
side.
"What he did not count on was Anwar using this incredible charisma and
organising ability to his own benefit (to
advance) in UMNO (the United Malays National Organisation, main party in
the National Front)."
Gale said many saw Mahathir's sacking of Anwar on September 2, 1998, the
day after the premier announced
controversial currency controls, as a policy dispute. "But this was
central to the whole question of political power."
He said the crisis threatened everything that Mahathir, a "very proud
man," had built up since 1981. He was
determined to stay on and rebuild the economy but Anwar was growing
impatient to take over.
"The pressure builds and the split begins to widen."
Gale said Mahathir perhaps made a mistake in sacking Anwar in such
circumstances. But having done so he could not
just portray it as a minor cabinet reshuffle given the huge protest
rallies which Anwar was drawing.
"Having said he sacked him for alleged sodomy and corruption he (Mahathir)
had to charge him to maintain his
credibility."
Anwar is serving a six-year jail term for abusing his official power to
quash allegations of sexual misconduct and is
now on trial for sodomy.
Khoo Boo Teik, a lecturer at University Science of Malaysia and visiting
fellow at the Asia Resesarch Centre in
Perth's Murdoch University, said that without the economic crisis there
would have been no Anwar crisis "and maybe
Mahathir would have been able to depart from the scene relatively
smoothly."
Mahathir has brought Malaysia dramatic economic growth at the expense, say
his critics, of human rights and clean
government.
In an interview earlier this month Michael Leifer, director of the Asia
research centre at the London School of
Economics, predicted "a very personal election -- a vote of confidence or
not in Mahathir to give him another five
years in which he will decide the succession."
He said the poll would be a referendum on Mahathir, who had an enviable
economic record.
"Part of the conflict with Anwar was that he was determined not to go down
in history as an ageing failed leader, so it
was necessaary for him to destroy Anwar," Leifer said.
One diplomat predicted that Mahathir, a famously tough political fighter,
would still come out on top.
"The (poll) victory will seal his legacy after 18 years at the helm. It
will be Mahathir's crowning glory before he steps
down."
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