I pretty much agree with that analysis, just wanted to point out that Android Marked went from 20.000 to 25.000 over the last month or so: http://www.androidguys.com/2010/01/23/unofficial-count-android-market-hovering-25000-apps/
On Jan 26, 10:36 am, Karsten Silz <[email protected]> wrote: > On Jan 23, 7:31 pm, Fabrizio Giudici <[email protected]> > wrote: > > > > > Karsten Silz wrote: > > > On Jan 21, 9:31 pm, Stephen Chin <[email protected]> wrote: > > > >> Karsten, > > > >> JavaFX has the potential to run on any platform where Java ME can run, > > >> which is a pretty large spectrum. > > > > I don't think mobile developers care about JavaME phones at this > > > point. Sorry, but with the iPhone and Android wooing developers and > > > RIM and Microsoft trying to keep up, that train has left the station. > > > This is clearly false _today_ looking at the numbers. Maybe in future, > > but _today_ Android is just a fraction of the market and I, as a > > developer, wouldn't like to cut away e.g. the whole Nokia and BlackBerry > > segments - criticized or not, they are still the two largets > > manufacturers. Indeed I agree that if Oracle put some "muscles" on the > > thing, paving the way for Android and many JME platforms, JavaFX could > > grow a lot. Of course, depending on this and other things, in > > perspective things may change. > > When deciding what mobile platform to develop for, a number of factors > come in: > > How easy is development? > How big is the market? > How fragmented is the market? > How easy is app distribution? > What percentage of users will install the app? > If you want to get paid: What percentage of users will pay for the > app? > > From that perspective, Symbian is very expensive: development is hard > (C? Qt? JME?), extreme fragmentation, broken distribution (Nokia will > relaunch its Ovi app store after a > year:http://www.engadget.com/2009/12/11/nokia-taking-ovi-store-criticism-t...), > users not interested in apps on their feature phones and not used to > pay for content. > > Similarly, development for Blackberry isn't easy (no visual UI builder > until the middle of > 2010:http://www.berryreview.com/2009/11/09/rim-announces-opengl-es-support...), > quite some fragmentation (I heard developers complain on a podcast > that it's hard/impossible to write an app that runs across all > Blackberries), distribution is somewhat hampered (high minimum app > price in Blackberry store of $2.99, rather few "fun apps"), low > percentage of users who will install the app (pretty much all business > users will have their phones locked down for security/IT management > reasons - that probably makes up about half of all 36 mio Blackberry > users:http://crackberry.com/press-release-research-motion-reports-third-qua...), > and users aren't used to apps or paying for content. > > From that perspective, Android is attractive - easy to develop for, > modest fragmentation, working distribution, high percentage of user > willing to install and pay for apps (early adopters). This seems to > outweigh the low number of devices sold. And look at it from a mobile > phone vendors perspective: If you build a smartphone, you'll be > measured against the iPhone, and right now Android makes you look best > there (and it's free). Maybe this will change with Windows Mobile 7 > at the end of the year at the earliest (which I think is not likely), > maybe it'll change because Google pissed off their ecosystem by doing > their own phone, but for now, Android is the "iPhone for the rest of > us". So I think developer going for Android take this into account. > > But no matter what you or I think is rational for developers, by > looking at the amount of apps in the respective app store you can > gauge developer excitement. The numbers are inflated by these "one > ebook is an app" and "one city guide is an app" apps, but this affects > all platforms to a certain degree, so I think the numbers _in relation > to each other_ are meaningful. Of course, that's where Apple is the > king of the hill with maybe 135,000 apps today; I'm sure we'll hear an > updated number on Wednesday. Android is surprisingly strong with > maybe about 20,000 apps. Try as a I might, I couldn't get a current > number for the Blackberry App World - I only have 2,000 after 3.5 > months last July (http://www.engadget.com/2009/07/08/blackberry-app- > world-now-home-to-2-000-applications/). I guess that it's a lot less > than Android (5,000? 10,000?), if it was more, we'd heard it at the > last RIM quarter result press conference. Nokia doesn't give out > numbers for its Ovi store, and the Windows Mobile store numbers are > pathetic (though most Windows Mobile apps aren't in there). Looking > at these number, you could even argue that Android has the most > developer love because despite just having a few million devices in > the market and already seeing fragmentation, they racked up 20,000 > apps in less than a year, where Apple has 135,000 apps after 1.5 years > for probably 65 mio devices (iPhone + iPod Touch). > > That's why I said that developers clearly go for iPhone and Android. > > > Given that Android developers are already complaining about > > self-fragmentation of Android itself (it has been discussed in a > > parallel thread) and that they are running just a handful of models, > > it's to be seen if they will able to keep fragmentation under control > > with hundreds of models. > > Agreed. > > > -- > > Fabrizio Giudici - Java Architect, Project Manager > > Tidalwave s.a.s. - "We make Java work. Everywhere." > > weblogs.java.net/blog/fabriziogiudici -www.tidalwave.it/people > > [email protected] -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en.
