False premise, I think. The idea of reducing loss of life is not the end goal, but a means to combat the end goal of terrorist tactics -- diminished public morale. Most of the time, the two go hand-in-hand (after all, if people are dying, other people are scared, and if people aren't dying, then they aren't scared), but not always. Fear, as well as risk assessment in general, is a particularly poorly developed human ability. In some ways, it is one of the most complex cognitive tasks we undertake without thinking of it as such. What is more dangerous: a high probability of minor injury or a low probability of grave injury? -- those are the kinds of questions we are routinely trying to answer and with very little tolerance for ambiguity in our answers.
We are also quite prone to conflating control (and even mere perception thereof) with safety. For example, most people do not consider driving dangerous or more dangerous than flying simply because they believe they have more control over their destiny on public roads than in the sky. In the face of common knowledge about driving and flying fatality stats, "everyone" is a better-than-average driver. This effect was illustrated in a study of American WW2 bomber pilots and infantry. Infantry soldiers had much higher survival rate than bombers, but they had no idea when or how they were going to be under attack, particularly bombing raids in the middle of the night, whereas the pilots had some ridiculous shot-down rate of 1 out of 20 missions and were convinced they were much better off than their brethren on the ground. In other words, a government that's trying to maintain public morale has to give people perception of control and reduce perception of randomness or ambiguity of events. People will feel better about their safety then, even at the expense of actual safety. Alexey 2001 Honda CBR600F4i (CCS) 2002 Suzuki Bandit 1200S 1992 Kawasaki EX500 http://azinger.blogspot.com http://bsheet.sourceforge.net http://wcollage.sourceforge.net ________________________________ From: Kevin Wright <[email protected]> To: [email protected] Sent: Tue, November 23, 2010 3:39:05 PM Subject: Re: [The Java Posse] Re: I'm glad I don't have to Fly right now As a thought experiment... If the goal of "enhanced security" is to prevent terrorist attacks, and the goal in preventing terrorist attacks is a reduction in the injuries and loss of life that they cause; but these checks will "drive" more and more people to use road transport, and traffic accidents are one of the biggest causes of death and injury in the US. To what degree then, will the effect of these (rather expensive) checks be to cause MORE death and injury, the very things they're allegedly seeking to reduce. On 23 November 2010 20:32, CKoerner <[email protected]> wrote: > People have their own beliefs, >> so if they feel so strongly against it, they should not fly. Flying is not >> mandatory. > >Neither is riding a bus, or driving a car. However realistically >flying is the only method in which people cover large distances in >short periods of time. > >It would be better if every passenger stripped completely and flew >totally naked. Afterall, if they don't like it, they don't have to >fly. > >At what point do you stand up for your rights? When the next bomber >has it up his rectum will it be okay for randomly pull people aside >for rectal exams? After all, they don't have to fly. > >-- > >You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The >Java Posse" group. >To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >[email protected]. >For more options, visit this group at >http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en. > > -- Kevin Wright mail / gtalk / msn : [email protected] pulse / skype: kev.lee.wright twitter: @thecoda -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en.
