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I was interested in your observations on the demand for maps of Cuba.
Of course, the biggest problem is that they're almost impossible to obtain --
at least those at any scale greater than 1: 250 000 .
The US Gov't. has classified those maps on Cuba that it has at those larger
scales, and getting anything from official sources in Cuba will have to wait, I
fear, until the Castro Bros. go out of business, and Cuba comes under new
management.
I'm familiar with the difficulty of finding good, large-scale maps of Cuba.
even tried the FOIA for the map sereies put out by NIMA (NGIS ?), but never
with any concrete result.
Mike S. Goodman
El pueblo armado jamas sera aplastado!
________________________________
From: Barry L. Ruderman <b...@raremaps.com>
To: Discussion group for map history <maphist@geo.uu.nl>
Sent: Saturday, December 24, 2011 1:36 AM
Subject: Re: [MapHist] Alternative Investing 2011 / Holy Land Map Values
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Al,
Yours is perhaps my favorite question--what drives the value of antique maps
over time.
As a map dealer and collector of nearly 20 years, a former bankruptcy lawyer
and trained economist, this is a topic that for me is a never ending source of
fascination.
With respect to Holy Land Maps, here are my observations.
1. Since the end of WWII, the value of antique maps as a whole has steadily
appreciated. At the beginning of this time line, there are marvelous anecdotes
about a young Kenneth Newman of the Old Print Shop making annual visits to see
RV Tooley and finding the stack of American maps untouched from the prior
year's visit. By the 1990s, a number of New York dealers were traveling almost
every month to Europe to buy from continental sources and Clive Burden was
traveling the US with his suitcases, supplying hundreds of full and part time
dealers with stock. As demand grew in the US, prices generally followed, and
the US market probably drove the Holy Land market as much as any economic
factor.
2. Because of the inefficiencies of the markets, over time, the prices of some
regional maps rose dramatically. In some instances, these increases were in
part artificial and resulted from the inefficiencies of the markets in the US.
A relatively small number of dealers controlled the market and were able to
raise prices disproportionately to the amount of collectable material
available. This wasn't a collusion or scheme, it was simply a recognition that
demand did not decline significantly as prices were increased.
3. In some cases, these demands were artificially fueled by unique social and
economic factors. Typically, these factors had to do with a unique ethnic or
cultural pride, which when combined with certain ephemeral factors, conspired
to drive prices up even further than other markets and resulted in busts.
An example of #3 is the demand for maps of Cuba. The recent history of Cuba
resulted in a strengthened "nationalism" and bond that intensified with the
displacement of educated and wealthy Cubans in the late 1950s and early 1960s.
As the generation of Cuban born ex-pats aged, collecting interests blossomed,
as time and disposable income grew. Prices rose accordingly. However, there
came a point where this first generation of collectors ceased collecting.
While their children still felt a cultural identity and bond, the passion and
nationalism naturally declined with time. The number of Cuban map collectors
has fallen considerably over the past 10-15 years.
For various reasons, a similar phenomenon has occurred with maps of South
Africa, Japan and the Holy Land. I suspect South Africa's decline coincided
with the end of apartheid. With Japan, it ended when the Japanese markets
collapsed in the late 1980s and consumption patterns changed. For the Holy
Land, I suspect it was driven by the passions of the generation of Jews who
experienced and survived the Second World War and the birth of Israel as a
nation and the early tribulations of Israel as a nation. The "next" generation
did not share the same intense passion and connection and collecting interest
declined accordingly. With respect to Holy Land maps, there is also one other
factor at work. There is a tremendous amount of material to collect. Because
of historical interest in ancient and modern Israel and the various biblical
stories portrayed in maps, the amount of material available for such as small
swatch of land is disproportionate to
virtually every other place on earth (look for example at the number of Holy
Land and Holy Land-centric maps by Ortelius, in comparison to all other regions
mapped in his atlases).
The most fascinating bust is probably the decline in value of maps and views of
Germany from the peak years in the 1980s to the late 1990s. German dealers
have watched the values for the most common material decline by 80-90% from the
peak times. The reasons for this decline are harder to understand, but may be
as simple as supply and demand. Views that sold for 2500 DM in good times are
now slow sellers at 250 Euros.
4. Another major factor causing a decline in some prices is the changes which
resulted because of the internet. Before the net, supplies were controlled by
a small group of dealers and it was easy to create a perception of scarcity.
The web demonstrated that many of the European published maps of the 16th-17th
Centuries were available in much greater quantities than believed by most
collectors prior to 1996 (1995-1997 is when the first wave of dealers went
on-line, including myself). This phenomenon has driven many of the open shop
dealers in major European and American cities out of business, as transparency
and auction houses compressed margins and drove down prices. As a result, the
value of many European printed maps was relatively flat from the late 1990s to
2007 and have probably declined from 2008 to 2011.
The factors set forth in #4 above are likely to abate with the next economic
recovery. The number of collectors in the world has grown significantly
because of the web. While the profile of the typical collector and their
interests may be changing or evolving over time, the web has created a
democratization of collecting which makes it possible for a surgeon in Alaska
or a factory owner in Christ Church to collect just as actively as a banker in
New York or London. One of my most active clients is a journalist who has
resided in Iraq and Afghanistan for most of the past 10 years and never once
set foot in my shop. Moreover, the learning curve for collectors is much
shorter, as a typically collector can view tens of thousands of maps in more
than a dozen countries on line and access institutional collections and
scholarly material in the same manner. And they can pick the brains of dozens
of map dealers by email!
The good news is that Holy Land values seem to have been stable and/or
increased in recent years and there are a number of 30- and 40-something Holy
Land collectors who are just reaching their peak earning years and already
amassed excellent comprehensive collections, which bodes well for demand and
values over the next several decades.
Oops...now I'm giving investment advice.
Happy Holidays!
Barry Ruderman
Barry Lawrence Ruderman Antique Maps Inc.
7463 Girard Avenue
La Jolla, CA 92037 (USA)
b...@raremaps.com
www.RareMaps.com
(858) 551-8500
Member: Antiquarian Booksellers Association of America
International League of Antiquarian Booksellers
Gallery Hours: Monday to Friday 9am to 4pm
Weekends & Evenings By Appointment
----- Original Message -----
From: a...@moldovan.md
To: "Discussion group for map history" <maphist@geo.uu.nl>
Sent: Friday, December 23, 2011 2:20:36 PM
Subject: RE: [MapHist] Alternative Investing 2011- Mappinga
Profit:Cartography and Fine Art Investment - CNBC
This is a MapHist list message.
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I have been collecting Holy land and Jerusalem maps and views for the past 40
years. I never bought an item "for investment purposes' but I would like to
note that the value of these items has fallen considerably, except for some
very rare items. Does anyone have any idea why this has been happening? Al
From: maphist-boun...@geo.uu.nl [mailto:maphist-boun...@geo.uu.nl] On Behalf Of
Geographicus Antique Maps
Sent: Friday, December 23, 2011 5:14 PM
To: 'Discussion group for map history'
Subject: RE: [MapHist] Alternative Investing 2011- Mappinga Profit:Cartography
and Fine Art Investment - CNBC
This seems absurd to me.
You cannot use “centuries” of evidence to dismiss modern day market reality.
The market economy of the past 50 years did not exist 100 years ago and what we
are dealing with today cannot be understood in these terms, hence, of course
“general price increases we think of as continuous really began in the early 20
th century”. That “rise” is an 80+ year pattern of ascendency in map value that
beats almost any other investment I can think of. Like any investment there is
risk – the Earth could be hit by a meteor tomorrow tumbling the world a new
dark age, at that point I am not going to be worried about map value but nor am
I going to be trading on the AMEX. On the other hand a tangible object that has
steadily and dramatically increased in value over the past 100 years is a
pretty good investment. Certainly I would see this 80+ year trend as a stronger
indicator than say the history of the American housing market, long touted as a
stable and
solid investment. Moreover, with a serious history of only about 50 or 60
years, the map trade in general remains in its infancy and has plenty of room
to grow.
On a related note, it is inaccurate to describe the acquisition of art for
investment as “speculation”. By definition a speculator is someone who
purchases something expecting profits without any serious basis for that
purchase. While certainly there remain speculators in any investment arena,
this is foolish and it would not be prudent to invest in anything without
research and study. In the art trade, at least, this information is readily
available to most people in the form of auction records, many of which are
conveniently archived online. Investing in art is thus nothing like “Zen”, it
is based upon knowledge, experience, and timing just like any other investment.
Collectors get the best returns because, of course, they approach their
collections with the greatest knowledge and passion. This is true of any market
– that is to say, those who approach the market with knowledge win.
The idea that investment is antithetical to collecting is akin to the
Tocquevillian idea that Democracy is the death of high art. What we are
witnessing is an inevitable change in the collecting– but hardly its death or
decline. A collector can nurse his passion for art while at the same time
acquire pieces that will likely rise in value as easily as I can acquire
profitable stocks in companies that maintain an ethical environmental record.
Tocqueville lamented that without a moneyed leisure class there would be no
“fastidious consumers” dedicated to the appreciation and consumption of certain
kinds of art. What happened instead? The rise in Democracy and coincided with a
global cultural flowering of all kinds of art. The rise of the art-investor
will no doubt change the market and yes, potentially price out less well
financed collectors, but it will also lead to greater interest in the field and
provide more opportunities connoisseurship and
knowledge to drive collections at all levels. The combination of collecting
and investing is a natural response to the rise of a trade, in this case map
collecting, in a market economy where the likes of investment capitalists, Arab
Sheiks, and the global middle class are all acquiring.
Kevin
From: maphist-boun...@geo.uu.nl [mailto:maphist-boun...@geo.uu.nl] On Behalf Of
George Ritzlin
Sent: Friday, December 23, 2011 4:02 PM
To: Discussion group for map history
Subject: Re: [MapHist] Alternative Investing 2011 - Mappinga Profit:Cartography
and Fine Art Investment - CNBC
I agree with Dorothy, Ed and Joel. There is good reason for the ILAB’s
proscription against suggesting rare books (and maps) are an investment. Aside
from the uncertain economics of "investing" in art, such an approach is
antithetical to collecting.
We, too, hear the investment question in our gallery and our standard reply is
"you get your dividends by looking at and studying these maps. If there is
residual value at the end, treat it as a bonus." We also suggest a minimum
holding period of twenty years to overcome the high transaction costs of the
collectible market, and tell people the best financial results have gone to
those who are the true collectors. They buy the best maps they can afford and
hold them as long as possible. "Investing" in maps or art is a bit like Zen –
you hit the target by not aiming at it.
It is worthwhile to consider a longer history than ten years. If I recall
correctly, when Professor Koeman wrote his little booklet on Blaeu’s Grand
Atlas he observed that the price of the atlas went nowhere for two centuries.
It is only in more recent times that prices rose.
The general price increases we think of as continuous really began in the early
20 th century (some economists argue the late 19 th century), and were preceded
by nearly a century of no inflation or disinflation.
For those interested in the broad sweep of prices I commend David Hackett
Fischer’s "The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History" on
European prices since the building of the Cathedral of Chartes, which
demonstrates that patterns of price change are quite uneven over time.
Given the present economic uncertainty, it would be presumptuous to suggest
recent trends will continue unabated.
For something closer to the map market, read Gerald Reitlinger’s three-volume
"The Economics of Taste" on the rise and fall of prices for paintings and
objets de art, from the mid-18th century to the mid-20th century. I can think
of no better way to conclude than to cite Mr. Reitlinger’s introduction to his
third volume (published 1970, pages 11-12).
"It cannot be denied that enormous profits have been made in the past two
decades by those who followed fashionable trends...in order to sell-out a few
year later, but these are not investors but speculators. The only investors are
those who never meant to invest at all. Those who bought some twenty years
ago...may have seen their treasures multiply in value... But they will either
have ceased to collect altogether or they will have joined the general
rat-race, selling dear in order to buy even dearer. Those who bought from
income or pin-money will compete with those who pledge their entire capital.
That is the meaning of art as an investment , nothing less than the extinction
of true collecting."
George Ritzlin
----- Original Message -----
From: Geographicus Antique Maps
To: 'Discussion group for map history'
Sent: Friday, December 23, 2011 1:37 PM
Subject: RE: [MapHist] Alternative Investing 2011 - Mappinga Profit:Cartography
and Fine Art Investment - CNBC
This is a MapHist list message.
News: If you don't get messages anymore, go to http://www.maphist.nl for news
about the new MapHist Forum
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Joel –
We do not advise clients to purchase maps for investment purposes – though we
like all dealers invest in old maps and must recognize that they do have
investment value, and I am not talking about 3% inflation. As with any physical
object, be it a house, a car, or an old map, liquidity is an issue, but it is
an issue that anyone purchasing such an object is aware of upfront. Also like
any investment, investors in physical objects need a knowledge base regarding
what they are buying. Just as one does not randomly purchase stock or houses or
cars and expect get rich, one should exercise the same caution in acquiring an
antique. Strategic knowledge-based acquisitions however (from dealers and from
other venues like auctions) can yield handsome profits over time. If it were
not so dealers would all be in the poorhouse. The premise behind fine art
investment funds is as sound as and bears a similar risk level as any object
asset investment – I see no
reason why such funds should not include historical artifacts, like maps, as
part of their acquisition portfolios.
Kevin
From: maphist-boun...@geo.uu.nl [mailto:maphist-boun...@geo.uu.nl] On Behalf Of
Joel Kovarsky
Sent: Friday, December 23, 2011 1:21 PM
To: Discussion group for map history
Subject: Re: [MapHist] Alternative Investing 2011 - Mapping a
Profit:Cartography and Fine Art Investment - CNBC
I think this is different than the point Dorothy Sloan was making, which was
seconded by Ed Dahl. The idea that the price of any good rises over time and
with inflation is quite different than the recommendation of using old maps as
an investment strategy. This business is hardly the equivalent of an index
fund, and has none of the liquidity or regulatory constraints that go into
financial vehicles (OK, I know recent history questions some of the regulatory
issues). I think you tread on very thin ice advising someone to use old maps as
a significant investment vehicle. The ILAB (and IAMA) Code of Ethics rightly
admonish not to use these materials as "investment schemes." The idea of
investing in maps has something in common with investing in art, so that the
higher end of the market is likely to yield the best returns over time: you had
better have both funding and knowledge to forage that world on a consistent
basis. And there are exceptions to
everything.
Joel Kovarsky
On 12/23/2011 12:04 PM, Geographicus Antique Maps wrote: This is a MapHist list
message. News: If you don't get messages anymore, go to http://www.maphist.nl
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Ed –
I disagree. “Is my map likely to increase in value over time?” is one of the
most common questions dealers are asked. In is not unethical to answer
truthfully. While we always encourage our clients to purchase maps first
because they enjoy them and not directly as an investment, the answer to this
question is “most likely”. In the short term, unless you are a dealer or very
savvy, it is indeed difficult to purchase a map at a retail gallery and turn a
profit, however, in the long term there is significant potential for profit.
The historical increase in map value over a considerable time (10+ years) is
chartable to anyone with access to historical sales data – which should be
pretty much everyone in this list. While certain maps, like the stock market,
can bubble in value for short periods of time, the overall and consistent trend
is for maps to increase in value as time passes. Most dealers, like ourselves,
price maps in accordance with
historical retail and auction values for similar items. On such a model a
natural increase in value can be reasonably anticipated.
Kevin
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The statements and opinions expressed in this message are those of
the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the University of
Utrecht. The University of Utrecht does not take any responsibility for
the views of the author.
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_______________________________________________
MapHist: E-mail discussion group on the history of cartography
hosted by the Faculty of Geosciences, University of Utrecht.
The statements and opinions expressed in this message are those of
the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the University of
Utrecht. The University of Utrecht does not take any responsibility for
the views of the author.
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The statements and opinions expressed in this message are those of
the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the University of
Utrecht. The University of Utrecht does not take any responsibility for
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