On Tue, Oct 6, 2026 at 08:22 AM, David Walters wrote: > > Ukraine and Russia don't need a ceasefire. *They need an end to the war*. > The wishful thinking that some sort of sort of fantastical mutual mass > mobilization would occur on both sides is beyond fairy-tales. It is > thoroughly non-materialist because so long as Russia wages war against > Ukraine by forceably occupying its land, there will be no end to the > Ukrainians fighting to end that occupation, chaos in the rear, > notwithstanding.
David, I also don't see much potential for the development of a sizeable organized antiwar movement on either side but this is not inconsistent with mass war weariness, a not insignificant factor in bring wars to a conclusion. I don't know on what basis you declare that "so long as Russia wages war against Ukraine by forceably occupying its land, there will be no end to the Ukrainians fighting to end that occupation." Not only is there mass resistance to conscription among draft-age Ukrainians but the wider civilian population is also apparently eager for a negotiated end to the war which, if realized, would be necessarily be preceded by a ceasefire. I can't recall whether I posted a Gallup poll which reported a little over three months ago that of those Ukrainians surveyed "only 24% say Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins the war, while 66% say it should seek to negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. These attitudes are on par with 2025, which itself represented a nearly complete reversal in public opinion compared with the early days of the conflict in 2022, when 73% favored continuing to fight and 22% favored a negotiated end as soon as possible. More Ukrainians have favored a negotiated end over a continued fight since 2024." https://news.gallup.com/poll/711992/ukrainians-sour-washington-views-war-stabilize.aspx Another survey earlier this year indicated the same growing war weariness in Russia: "In February 2026, a record high of 67.2% said peace negotiations should begin, while 24.3% said military actions should continue, with the remainder unable to answer. At the same time, the 24.3% in support of military action recorded in February 2026 is the lowest level observed, while 67.2% supporting negotiations is the highest level recorded since the question was first asked." https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/levada-poll-shows-rising-support-peace-talks-devil-details Russian antiwar opinion has very likely shifted even further since February as Ukrainian missiles and drones have struck deeper into Russian territory and exposed its energy and other infrastructure to the same damage that the Russian military has been inflicting for years on Ukraine. Of course, as in all wars between capitalist powers, the masses on each side would like to see a peace consistent with their government's war aims, but history has also shown they will opt to end the fighting in the face of a crushing defeat or a bloody stalemate on the battlefield which leads to a steady erosion of their living standards and access to basic necessities. I think we're rapidly reaching the point where military stalemate, the destruction of infrastructure, and rising mass discontent on both sides will force a ceasefire. Despite your suggestion to the contrary, I believe the Ukrainians will accept Russian occupation of some part of their territory as a condition of ending the war, perhaps sooner than later as winter approaches and in view of NATO's inability, despite its blustering, to come to their defence as you earlier pointed out. -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Groups.io Links: You receive all messages sent to this group. View/Reply Online (#43630): https://groups.io/g/marxmail/message/43630 Mute This Topic: https://groups.io/mt/121598768/21656 -=-=- POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. #4 Do not exceed five posts a day. -=-=- Group Owner: [email protected] Unsubscribe: https://groups.io/g/marxmail/leave/13617172/21656/1316126222/xyzzy [[email protected]] -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
