It was all in the reports. The stuff I worked on had some fairly
realistic numbers on all that, based on what we knew at the time and
some reasonable expectations of the march of technology. One of the
biggest assumptions was the performance of solar photovoltaics going
from maybe 3% efficiency (at the time) to 6% or more, I think that is
sorta typical these days, might be even better than that. And yes the
photovoltaic arrays do degrade, that was factored in, I recall something
like continuous upgrades of arrays as part of the process, after a time.
While cost projections on anything are worth the paper they are printed
on, if that, all-up costs on a common basis (including externalities in
the costs of competing technologies) showed SPS power to be in the
competitive realm, with a major assumption that costs of delivering
payloads to GEO would come down, either in earth->GEO launches or in
moon->GEO launches using lunar materials and propellants (including
"fuelless" launches using a mass driver). Note that building the
satellites in LEO from earth-launched materials, then using electric
propulsion (argon ion thrusters) to take them to GEO made sense, it
takes awhile but there is plenty of power and time to do it, so no big
deal. Launching stuff "downhill" makes a lot of sense, and when you have
essentially unlimited resources on the moon with minimal concerns about
environmental effects (externalities), either from launches or
manufacturing, then it looks even better.
I talked a coupla years ago to one of my friends/colleagues from that
time about Peter and these ideas, as far as she knew nothing was being
done about it now. Another colleague with whom we worked, a former
Apollo astronaut, is still alive living in the DC area somewhere, I have
reached out to him but have never heard back and neither has my friend
(whose good friend was married to him for some time, I guess they aren't
any more). I don't know what he is up to these days, he must be way up
in his 80s now. I know he kept trying to promote these ideas with
Peter. There were also some other interesting characters involved,
somewhat peripherally, but kept the ideas "out there."
As far as low-hanging fruit, yep... but sometimes a visionary can help
reach that higher fruit...
Sic transit gloria mundi...
--FT
On 4/4/19 5:44 PM, G Mann via Mercedes wrote:
What a grand plan.
However, after reading the posting in detail, I find no cost per KW hr.
projection based on the expected life of the solar orbit array, and the
actual cost of building it and maintaining it, both in space and on the
ground.
Thus, solar and wind are still "pie in the sky" not connected to the
reality of real life and mankind as it truly exists.
As long as there is low hanging fruit to be picked, mankind will pick it
first.
On Thu, Apr 4, 2019 at 2:22 PM Floyd Thursby via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
The sun shines continuously a few thousand miles away
https://www.wired.com/2014/04/solar-power-satellites-a-visual-introduction/
Full disclosure: My first grown-up job was working for Peter Glaser on
SPS-related work. His sweet secretary facilitated that job after we
spoke a coupla times on the phone. I think I wrote some of the content
of one or two of those referenced reports. If anyone had any vision
these days for truly remarkable challenges rather than being mired down
in issues about whose feeeeeeeelings are being hurt, we would be
building components for these on the moon and launching to LEO where
they would be assembled robotically. No nuclear waste to deal with, all
the power you could want.
--FT
On 4/4/19 4:25 PM, Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes wrote:
EV vehicles are not a dream, Randy. There are thousands of them and
thousands more are selling every month. In Manitoba, where do you get
your
power? The answer is hydro. You are like Curt in that you expect
perfection
all at once. The trend is definitely towards solar and wind. I agree with
you about collateral damage to birds from the wind turbines, but that
problem is going to be overcome with offshore wind development, where it
has less effect on birds.
And the tired old song about the Sun not shining at night will be
overcome
through the evolution of storage batteries. Many utilities are already
installing these.
On Thu, Apr 4, 2019, 4:16 PM Randy Bennell via Mercedes <
mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote:
On 04/04/2019 12:35 PM, Andrew Strasfogel via Mercedes wrote:
Think positively: we're heading in the right direction.
But, we are all old enough the only electric vehicles we are likely to
ultimately find to be practical will be wheelchairs.
Electric vehicles are a dream. They have no range. They take too long to
re-charge. Battery technology is not at a point where they are
practical.
And, the infrastructure is not there to charge them. Solar does not work
in the dark. Not bad in Arizona. Not so good in Manitoba, especially in
winter.
Windmills kill the birds migrating through their path. I am surprised
the environmental crowd does not get the windmills banned for that
reason alone.
Nuclear is there but, as you pointed out yesterday, we have a problem
with the leftovers. Until they find a way to totally use up nuclear fuel
so that it does not pose a danger, there is the question of what to do
with the stuff that has no further use but is dangerous for the lord
only knows how long.
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--FT
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--FT
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