Great read, Gruff ! I see the visualised " events " as helpful ruses, which could serve to preempt any complacency on our part including, of course, Obama and his team.
A glaring omission is the Talibanic scenario unfolding in Pakistan. It is chilling, scary ! On Feb 18, 12:24 am, gruff <[email protected]> wrote: > This is not an answer to any of the above posts. It's a new issue and > I have to say, you Brits can sure dream up some realistically scary > scenarios. Consider this from the ... > > Financial Times > London, November 2012: a dystopian dream > By Gideon Rachman > February 16 2009 19:27 > > On both sides of the Atlantic, senior officials are issuing dire > warnings about global political turmoil. In the US, Admiral Dennis > Blair, the director of national intelligence, says instability > produced by the economic crisis is now the biggest short-term threat > to US national security. In Britain, Ed Balls, a cabinet minister, > argues that the financial crisis is "more serious" than that of the > 1930s, adding cheerfully: "And we all remember how the politics of > that era were shaped by the economy." > > All this is alarming - but also rather vague. So how might world > politics look in four years’ time? Something like this, perhaps . . . > > It is November 7 2012. At three in the morning, an exhausted-looking > President Barack Obama appears before weeping supporters in the > ballroom of the Chicago Hilton and concedes defeat. The euphoria of > his victory-night speech in Grant Park four years earlier is a distant > memory. The Obama administration has been overwhelmed by America’s > economic problems. Sarah Palin is the new president of the US. > > Elected on a ticket of populism at home and nationalism overseas, > President-elect Palin starts to take congratulatory phone calls from > foreign leaders. First on the line is Avigdor Lieberman, the prime > minister of Israel; then comes President Vladimir Putin of Russia. > Five different leaders claiming to speak in the name of the European > Union try to place calls - but they are all put on hold. As for the > Chinese leadership, the new president is not speaking to them. How > could she, after she has campaigned against the "communist currency > manipulators of Beijing"? > > The Chinese have resisted the temptation to call Mrs Palin a > "capitalist running dog". But Maoist language is creeping back into > Chinese official discourse, as the country struggles to adjust to the > collapse and closure of its export markets. Alarmed by the large > number of unemployed in the cities, the Communist party has abandoned > plans to privatise rural land and invested heavily in public works in > the countryside and new collective farms. This policy is swiftly > dubbed "the Great Leap backwards". > > The world event that had most damaged Mr Obama was Iran’s successful > test of a nuclear weapon in 2011. The Republicans had hammered home > their message that Mr Obama was "a second Jimmy Carter", who had been > duped by hopes of striking a grand bargain with Iran. > > The Iranian nuclear test had also driven Israeli politics even further > to the right and set the stage for the rise of Mr Lieberman. His > campaign slogan in the 2011 election - "bomb them while they are on > the toilet " - was borrowed from Mr Putin and chanted gleefully by Mr > Lieberman’s Russian-speaking supporters. > > Mr Obama had successfully delivered on his campaign promise to get > America out of Iraq. But by 2012, the voters were taking that for > granted. Nato’s messy withdrawal from Afghanistan had, however, > damaged him. The US and its allies had left behind a country run by a > patchwork of more or less co-operative warlords. The new anti-terror > strategy was officially called "watch and strike", and unofficially > dubbed "whack a mole". It involved monitoring potential terrorist > camps from a distance and bombing them. > > Mr Putin had said that he had no intention of gloating about > Afghanistan, before adding: "But the age of American arrogance is > over." > > By 2010, Mr Putin was safely installed back in the Kremlin. The > gravity of Russia’s economic crisis had led the official media to > clamour for a return to strong leadership. President Dmitry Medvedev > had taken the hint in early 2010 and stepped aside. His arrest the > following year came as an unpleasant surprise. > > In 2011, the unstable democratic governments in Ukraine and Georgia > had fallen, after weeks of popular unrest. The Russians were suspected > of orchestrating events but nobody could prove anything. The Americans > and Europeans had protested - but only feebly. Privately, many western > diplomats argued that only Mr Putin stood between Russia and fascism. > > After the fall of the Merkel government in 2009, Germany was governed > by a succession of unstable coalitions and forgettable chancellors. > The hope that had accompanied the election of David Cameron as > Britain’s prime minister, under the slogan "let the sunshine in", had > swiftly disappeared. The hapless Mr Cameron was now the most unpopular > prime minister in British history. > > This left President Nicolas Sarkozy of France as the dominant figure > in the EU. His divorce from Carla Bruni and marriage to Madonna had > only briefly distracted him. > > Mr Sarkozy had weathered the denunciations that followed his decision > in 2010 formally to withdraw France from the EU’s regimes on > competition and state aid. All main French banks and industrial > conglomerates were instructed to make 90 per cent of their investments > at home. Mr Sarkozy’s move was widely denounced across the EU - but > then equally widely imitated. > > At home, the French president was under pressure to go even further in > a nationalist direction from his main political opponents - "the > postman and the housewife" -, otherwise known as Olivier Besancenot, a > Trotskyite, and Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front. Ms Le > Pen cited the rise of Sarah Palin as an inspiration. > > As the morning of November 7 wore on, President Palin herself took to > the stage in Anchorage, Alaska. Her supporters cheered and waved ice > hockey sticks. "I’ve got a message for the mullahs and the commies," > she roared: "America is back." > > [email protected] > Post and read comments at Gideon Rachman’s blog > More columns atwww.ft.com/gideonrachman > Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009 --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""Minds Eye"" group. 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