brrr. We might be there overnight. The deep freeze. Wonderful world. We move through it regardless.
On Jan 21, 10:24 am, rigs <[email protected]> wrote: > My earlier post has been diverted to outer space, it seems. > > That loneliness may be a cover, you know. > > Saul Bellow was a rascal. > > The speed of information leads to surprise and a protean miss, often. > I look for patterns in history/culture and try to keep two columns- > pro and con with hope for the margins. The top tiers of government are > usually the culprits rather than their off-spring- and it's true of > tribes as well as complicated systems- the buck really does stop- even > in suitcases of cash and packets of Viagra. > > My "dog" would need diapers- we're at -30 wind chill factor. > > On Jan 21, 6:10 am, archytas <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > > > > Of course, I don't expect anything tangled-up with government and > > academic bureaucracy to produce much practical. The gist was once > > that we should aim for praxis, a form of rational action. For some > > the guide was marxism, but most of us grew up with a form of Keynesian > > guide - the economics of full employment and FDR's never completed > > second Bill of Rights. More recently we have reverted to the control > > fraud of banksters and neo-classical economics. I was never much > > interested in the 'grand theory' - as a cop I was more interested in > > what people were hiding and lying about, as scientist the grand was > > excluded as rigorously as possible a the laboratory door and as a > > university teacher I was more interested in developing resourceful > > humans than daft, religious managerial theories. As a kid, my elder > > brother and sister always claimed I changed the goalposts in argument > > and as I grew up I discovered this was what argument was generally > > about - the goalposts changing name to root metaphor and paradigm. > > Experts in argument are bought like lawyers and have about the same > > ethics. When Socrates gestures at the Sophists claiming 'I know > > nothing, but even this is to know more than they' he is just being the > > smartest guy in the room. > > We say 'jaw-jaw' is better than 'war-war' - but there is no crucial > > experiment to decide in 'jaw-jaw'. The problem with argument is that > > it needs arbitration if human beings are involved in it and the seeds > > of its own destruction are laid in most people having no training in > > how it is constructed. If you get some training in this you can be > > bought like a lawyer as a mouthpiece. Machine knowledge bases and > > reasoning capacity potentially offer a democratisation of argument > > expertise, manufacturing capability, medicine, finance and much more - > > evidence-based practice for all. In practice, doing management > > information systems, one soon learns those currently in the know want > > to keep things that way. I believe the professions are currently > > preventing this as surely as those smashing machines in the industrial > > revolution. I believe this is the central issue of the moment - and > > my reasons concern the dream I have of the precipice of disgusting > > war,the dullness of politics, religion and literature. Economic > > growth is nearly all uninteresting - FlopBook and so on - and rarely > > about the growth of capital I would value. Would we could dream up > > something else - and why we cannot when 2% of labour can provide our > > food. I miss any sense of collective dreaming and find only the > > loneliness more 'primitive' people I've met would comment on in the > > first blush of their experience amongst us. > > > On Jan 21, 9:18 am, archytas <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > Those who have contributed to the thread have shown me there isn't > > > much general awareness of the 'technology'. There are already > > > intelligent systems like Watson (IBM) doing a fair job on embodied > > > expert knowledge (medical in this case). The general idea is in this > > > from New Scientist: > > > > In your wildest dreams, could you imagine a government that builds its > > > policies on carefully gathered scientific evidence? One that publishes > > > the rationale behind its decisions, complete with data, analysis and > > > supporting arguments? Well, dream no longer: that's where the UK is > > > heading. > > > > It has been a long time coming, according to Chris Wormald, permanent > > > secretary at the Department for Education. The civil service is not > > > short of clever people, he points out, and there is no lack of desire > > > to use evidence properly. More than 20 years as a serving politician > > > has convinced him that they are as keen as anyone to create effective > > > policies. "I've never met a minister who didn't want to know what > > > worked," he says. What has changed now is that informed policy-making > > > is at last becoming a practical possibility. > > > > That is largely thanks to the abundance of accessible data and the > > > ease with which new, relevant data can be created. This has supported > > > a desire to move away from hunch-based politics. > > > > Last week, for instance, Rebecca Endean, chief scientific advisor and > > > director of analytical services at the Ministry of Justice, announced > > > that the UK government is planning to open up its data for analysis by > > > academics, accelerating the potential for use in policy planning. > > > > At the same meeting, hosted by innovation-promoting charity NESTA, > > > Wormald announced a plan to create teaching schools based on the model > > > of teaching hospitals. In education, he said, the biggest single > > > problem is a culture that often relies on anecdotal experience rather > > > than systematically reported data from practitioners, as happens in > > > medicine. "We want to move teacher training and research and practice > > > much more onto the health model," Wormald said. > > > > Test, learn, adapt > > > > In June last year the Cabinet Office published a paper called "Test, > > > Learn, Adapt: Developing public policy with randomised controlled > > > trials". One of its authors, the doctor and campaigning health > > > journalist Ben Goldacre, has also been working with the Department of > > > Education to compile a comparison of education and health research > > > practices, to be published in the BMJ. > > > > In education, the evidence-based revolution has already begun. A > > > charity called the Education Endowment Foundation is spending £1.4 > > > million on a randomised controlled trial of reading programmes in 50 > > > British schools. > > > > There are reservations though. The Ministry of Justice is more > > > circumspect about the role of such trials. Where it has carried out > > > randomised controlled trials, they often failed to change policy, or > > > even irked politicians with conclusions that were obvious. "It is not > > > a panacea," Endean says. > > > > Power of prediction > > > > The biggest need is perhaps foresight. Ministers often need instant > > > answers, and sometimes the data are simply not available. Bang goes > > > any hope of evidence-based policy. > > > > "The timescales of policy-making and evidence-gathering don't match," > > > says Paul Wiles, a criminologist at the University of Oxford and a > > > former chief scientific adviser to the Home Office. Wiles believes > > > that to get round this we need to predict the issues that the > > > government is likely to face over the next decade. "We can probably > > > come up with 90 per cent of them now," he says. > > > > Crucial to the process will be convincing the public about the value > > > and use of data, so that everyone is on-board. This is not going to be > > > easy. When the government launched its Administrative Data Taskforce, > > > which set out to look at data in all departments and opening it up so > > > that it could be used for evidence-based policy, it attracted minimal > > > media interest. > > > > The taskforce's remit includes finding ways to increase trust in data > > > security. Then there is the problem of whether different departments > > > are legally allowed to exchange data. There are other practical > > > issues: many departments format data in incompatible ways. "At the > > > moment it's incredibly difficult," says Jonathan Breckon, manager of > > > the Alliance for Useful Evidence, a collaboration between NESTA and > > > the Economic and Social Research Council. > > > > Hearts, minds and funding > > > > There are economic issues. Most of the predictable areas where data > > > and evidence would be useful span different departments, and funding > > > for research that involves multiple government departments is near- > > > impossible to come by at the moment. "Only counter-terrorism gets > > > cross-departmental funding," Wiles says. > > > > And those at the frontline of all this may also need convincing. Some > > > teachers have already expressed reservations. There may be problems > > > with parents not wanting their children to take part in education > > > trials. For instance, in a control group they will feel left out of > > > innovation; in the experimental arm they will worry that the old ways > > > were better. What's more, teachers may be tempted to halt a trial > > > early if they feel it is not helping students. > > > > Nevertheless, the government is working with NESTA and a range of > > > backers to create a set of institutions dedicated to gathering > > > evidence that will impact on public policy. One example is the Early > > > Intervention Foundation, which helps local government evaluate schemes > > > that help preschool learning amongst children who would otherwise > > > enter standard education at a disadvantage. > > > > There will be announcements of more initiatives in the next few weeks, > > > says Geoff Mulgan, NESTA's chief executive . "We're hoping this year > > > the UK will jump a step ahead of every other country in the world in > > > having a set of institutions dedicated to generating evidence and > > > helping it to be used in day-to-day decisions." > > > > My own view is that intelligent systems could affect politics and our > > > attitudes towards work and wealth distribution. > > ... > > read more » --
