Only a quick reaction today; some other things came up. snip "They actually do closely predict reality, nature does display patterns. It may seem odd that there is a level of predictability to our reality but there is. " -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I agree for a part.But keep in mind that truths like this are conditional. The sun comes up , the sun goes down,for millions of years,day after day,so it will be a good 'assumption' to 'predict' that it will do so tomorrow.But is it?,.. or was there a flaw when the dino's died out,at previous impacts of unprovable meteorites-strikes?, will de sun set tomorrow,or shall we wake up in a nuclear winter?. What if the sun becomes a supernovae?....... Is the predictability a conditional assumtion?,or should it be a carved in stone thruth, uniquely and uniformly tied to the fact? Are there models outside antropology using statistics to predict morality,or explaining morality by the grace of math?. can i doubt it? if we take a value based philosophy can we take it for sure Cristian morality is acceptable?. what if i superpose virtue or betternes,goodness,fitness in stead of quality? I had no idea you guys were that clever btw, Mr chu is a very strong analitical thinker.Wes is very wide spectrum.top dollar. 2017-09-12 20:06 GMT+02:00 WES STEWART <[email protected]>: > Hello Ardie; > > They actually do closely predict reality, nature does display patterns. It > may seem odd that there is a level of predictability to our reality but > there is. Halloween is approaching next month tell me Ardie, do we normally > get a few children that show up at 5:00 PM then increases in visits and > peaks then falls off around 8:00 PM. It forms a bell curve, upper control > limit, average and lower control limits. > > How about average male heights, female heights follow the same pattern, > sure there are giants and dwarfs but this is due to special causes. At Bell > labs they were used to take measurements, in a factory setting, for > example, the machining of drive shafts. When Shewhart and Deming tried to > target a specific width for a drive shaft lets say 1.1513 inches the more > wilder the measurements became. They wanted close tolerances of the shaft > inside a bearing, less play, less clunky, longer life and higher quality of > a machine. When they tried to target 1.1513 by making adjustments they > measured 1.2517, 1.0512. > > When they decided not to aim for a target standard and just let the > experienced worker do his work, they measured tolerances in a run of twenty > drive shafts for example from 1.1508 to 1.1523. They called this common > cause variation, the best tools with the best machine and an experienced > machinist produced these results. They would take measurements off the > assembly line for a run of twenty, if any measurement was beyond the common > cause variation, the assembly line would shut down. > > They would investigate why it has fallen outside of the control limits; > poorly trained machinist, worn tools, worn bearings on the machine tools > and then they would fix these problems and start up the assembly line and > take measurements once again. Deming was in charge of quality during World > War II and trained managers and engineers of munition, aircraft, vehicle, > and other war factories. The Japanese Society of Engineers claimed this was > one of the reasons they lost World War II, American war production quality > was vastly superior to theirs. > > > From: "Adrie Kintziger" <[email protected]> > To: "moq discuss" <[email protected]> > Sent: Tuesday, September 12, 2017 10:37:36 AM > Subject: Re: [MD] The need for quality > > Hi, all , Wes. > > I took a snip of your proposal/story > > " > > I will build a story, that gives you an idea of Deming, and how his > philosophy enhances Pirsig, and how Pirsig's philosophy enhances Deming. > This is a simple story. > > The story begins with let us say; I am a new quality /safety manager for a > company with 500 employees that work outdoors. > A senior manager comes to me and tells me the workers injury compensation > payments are too high. He tells me to do something about lowering injuries. > He also adds its costing him on around $3000 dollars per injury, because an > employee sits on average 4 days before recovering from their injury. > > I have some statistical data of injuries from the previous 36 months. It > appears that ankle injuries are the most frequently occurring injuries. I > add up the ankle injuries for the 36 months, I then divide by 36 and come > up with a number of 41. So on average this organization has 41 ankle sprain > or fractures that occur every month. > > I want to do something because it is a moral thing; lowering that average > will also reduce the number of people who suffer pain and injury each > month. Would someone say my moral thinking is subjective? A psychopath > might. > > At this point I calculate standard deviation of 1, and come up with an > upper limit of 47 ankle injuries and a lower limit of 35, I calculate > standard deviation of 2 upper limit 53, lower limit of 29. I calculate > standard deviation of 3 upper limit of 59 and a lower limit 23. > > Next month I can forecast the ankle injury rate with 99% certainty will > fall between 59 and 23. I can also say that 68% of the time it will fall > between a standard deviation of 1, from 47 to 35. > > Pirsig would call this a static pattern, Deming would say it is in a state > of statistical process control. Pirsig would say it's a system that will > not change unless there is "dynamic quality" added to it. Deming would say > there has to be some "special cause" variation in order for change to > happen, the static pattern he see's is "common cause" variation, it's a > normal distribution curve, it is a normal pattern that occurs in nature. > > Let's say I do some research and visit 50 employees out in the field, and > startled to find that 48 of them wear low cut running shoes, only two of > them were wearing something with good solid ankle support > > I go to several work boot suppliers, ask them for advice and I am impressed > with one of them having so much knowledge on what good ankle support is in > a workboot. What's average better and best, in both comfort and support, > then he shows me the longest lasting, high quality boot with those > attributes. > > At a company meeting, I explain my rational and ask upper management to > reimburse every employee for boot purchase from that one supplier. I add in > that boots are personal protective equipment, and OHS regulations require > us to reimburse our employees for this. Maybe there is a large debate, > maybe the accountant says, "the guys out in the field are all idiots, they > just have to be more careful." Maybe at the end of the meeting the CEO > steps in and says "We have not been able to lower that rate in 3 years, in > spite of threats of termination and terminations, we have lost lots of our > most productive employees." He then agrees to go with my recommendations. > > > I have done something to change the system, we wanted to see that average > of 41 ankle injuries per month drop, and if we make the next month > measurement and find, that it is below 23 (standard deviation of 3) , it > may mean something. It may mean that the process of how ankle injuries > occurr is no longer a stable process, something has changed in the system. > As more people purchase boots we see, it drops to 20 then the following > month it goes to 15, thats a trend, because in the past 3 years it never > went below 23. Thats improvement in the quality of the working environment > for employees out in the field, thats something that is measureable. > > I measure the ankle injury rate for another 36 months, after the changes, > and see that the average is now 13 with the Upper control limit is 21 and > the lower control limit is now 0, thats real, we can see those numbers. Now > that is an improvement in the quality of the working environment of 68%, > specific to ankle injuries. > > Maybe the CEO talks with me about those 0 ankle injury months, and tells me > upper management has decided that they want them all to be 0 ankle injury > months. I try to explain to him about human beings and variation. "Common > cause variation in rain, wind, heat, terrain, stress, fatigue, having a > baby, and worried about keeping your job all fix those static patterns of > quality, from 0 to 21. Even the support of an employees direct manager > affect those numbers along with cooperation and teamwork from fellow > employees. Threats of firings or lay-off's do not help, after all, who can > think clearly when they are agitated, because distractions cause those > ankle sprain injuries." > > I tell him to expect the average to remain the same around 13. I tell him > the 0-21 variation from month to month is a normal distribution pattern > that is seen in nature. I state to him matter of factly, that business men > cannot really make demands on nature or science to change. Both safety and > quality will always see these normal distribution patterns, and for that > reason it will never reach 0 every month. I say to him that I will try to > come up with some other ways to improve the quality of the working > environment for our employees, but expect it not to move until I come up > with some ideas and we implement those changes...... > > ------------------------------- > > (Adrie) > This is not so very different from the story earlier on,in wich case you > proposed a mechanism swinging around a hinge of variables. > > I did re-read it several times to reconsider, but i have to come back to my > first comment.It is not critisism but common sense. > I can tell the story with fewer words and lesser vocabulary pitch.But it is > an example to make something clear.Not to ridicule you. > > Ok, lets say a guy comes at the banks of the Amazon, finding a statician at > the waterline collecting statistical depth table's.As he likes to go to the > other side,he asks to the statician,"can i safely pass the stream here?", > ...Yeah you really can the statician says, the average depth here is around > knee depth only.So the dude starts walking to the other side,only to drown > in a part of the river that has some greater depth.Statistically very > normal of course. > > What i can see in your model , Wes , is that you create story's like this > to > make something clear by adding complexity to the model.If i compare my > example with yours, the case is the same, but you will introduce say like > the speed of the stream, the position of the rocks in the riverbed,the > rotation of the earth,the lenght of the guy, can he swim or not?;;;;;etc, > but!, models like this > wil tell us nothing, at all,about philosophy.They fail to predict > reality.Or morality. > > > > 2017-09-11 5:44 GMT+02:00 WES STEWART <[email protected]>: > > > > > Hello Dan, Andrew and X-Acto; > > I have responded to your question towards the end X-Acto. > > Thanks for the response Ardie; > > > > Yes these are old ideas, concepts that are approaching 90 years, yet they > > still work for quality. > > > > I will build a story, that gives you an idea of Deming, and how his > > philosophy enhances Pirsig, and how Pirsig's philosophy enhances Deming. > > This is a simple story. > > > > The story begins with let us say; I am a new quality /safety manager for > a > > company with 500 employees that work outdoors. > > A senior manager comes to me and tells me the workers injury compensation > > payments are too high. He tells me to do something about lowering > injuries. > > He also adds its costing him on around $3000 dollars per injury, because > an > > employee sits on average 4 days before recovering from their injury. > > > > I have some statistical data of injuries from the previous 36 months. It > > appears that ankle injuries are the most frequently occurring injuries. I > > add up the ankle injuries for the 36 months, I then divide by 36 and come > > up with a number of 41. So on average this organization has 41 ankle > sprain > > or fractures that occur every month. > > > > I want to do something because it is a moral thing; lowering that average > > will also reduce the number of people who suffer pain and injury each > > month. Would someone say my moral thinking is subjective? A psychopath > > might. > > > > At this point I calculate standard deviation of 1, and come up with an > > upper limit of 47 ankle injuries and a lower limit of 35, I calculate > > standard deviation of 2 upper limit 53, lower limit of 29. I calculate > > standard deviation of 3 upper limit of 59 and a lower limit 23. > > > > Next month I can forecast the ankle injury rate with 99% certainty will > > fall between 59 and 23. I can also say that 68% of the time it will fall > > between a standard deviation of 1, from 47 to 35. > > > > Pirsig would call this a static pattern, Deming would say it is in a > state > > of statistical process control. Pirsig would say it's a system that will > > not change unless there is "dynamic quality" added to it. Deming would > say > > there has to be some "special cause" variation in order for change to > > happen, the static pattern he see's is "common cause" variation, it's a > > normal distribution curve, it is a normal pattern that occurs in nature. > > > > Let's say I do some research and visit 50 employees out in the field, and > > startled to find that 48 of them wear low cut running shoes, only two of > > them were wearing something with good solid ankle support > > > > I go to several work boot suppliers, ask them for advice and I am > > impressed with one of them having so much knowledge on what good ankle > > support is in a workboot. What's average better and best, in both comfort > > and support, then he shows me the longest lasting, high quality boot with > > those attributes. > > > > At a company meeting, I explain my rational and ask upper management to > > reimburse every employee for boot purchase from that one supplier. I add > in > > that boots are personal protective equipment, and OHS regulations require > > us to reimburse our employees for this. Maybe there is a large debate, > > maybe the accountant says, "the guys out in the field are all idiots, > they > > just have to be more careful." Maybe at the end of the meeting the CEO > > steps in and says "We have not been able to lower that rate in 3 years, > in > > spite of threats of termination and terminations, we have lost lots of > our > > most productive employees." He then agrees to go with my recommendations. > > > > > > I have done something to change the system, we wanted to see that average > > of 41 ankle injuries per month drop, and if we make the next month > > measurement and find, that it is below 23 (standard deviation of 3) , it > > may mean something. It may mean that the process of how ankle injuries > > occurr is no longer a stable process, something has changed in the > system. > > As more people purchase boots we see, it drops to 20 then the following > > month it goes to 15, thats a trend, because in the past 3 years it never > > went below 23. Thats improvement in the quality of the working > environment > > for employees out in the field, thats something that is measureable. > > > > I measure the ankle injury rate for another 36 months, after the changes, > > and see that the average is now 13 with the Upper control limit is 21 and > > the lower control limit is now 0, thats real, we can see those numbers. > Now > > that is an improvement in the quality of the working environment of 68%, > > specific to ankle injuries. > > > > Maybe the CEO talks with me about those 0 ankle injury months, and tells > > me upper management has decided that they want them all to be 0 ankle > > injury months. I try to explain to him about human beings and variation. > > "Common cause variation in rain, wind, heat, terrain, stress, fatigue, > > having a baby, and worried about keeping your job all fix those static > > patterns of quality, from 0 to 21. Even the support of an employees > direct > > manager affect those numbers along with cooperation and teamwork from > > fellow employees. Threats of firings or lay-off's do not help, after all, > > who can think clearly when they are agitated, because distractions cause > > those ankle sprain injuries." > > > > I tell him to expect the average to remain the same around 13. I tell him > > the 0-21 variation from month to month is a normal distribution pattern > > that is seen in nature. I state to him matter of factly, that business > men > > cannot really make demands on nature or science to change. Both safety > and > > quality will always see these normal distribution patterns, and for that > > reason it will never reach 0 every month. I say to him that I will try to > > come up with some other ways to improve the quality of the working > > environment for our employees, but expect it not to move until I come up > > with some ideas and we implement those changes. > > > > Maybe the accountant meets me in the hallway moments later and says, " We > > can have a 0 ankle injury month, and if you cannot do it every month > maybe > > we should hire a quality/ safety manager that can." > > > > Hello X-Acto, I will keep to Pirsigs or Demings description of a SYSTEM, > > because both of them talk about corruption, you can review Pirsigs full > > description in Chapter 8. > > Pirsig is extremely artful in his description because he has a Doctorate > > in Creative Writing; Deming a physicist, mathematician, and statistician, > > sometimes outwardly states they are corrupted by their greed. I think > that > > the systems theorists description that you sent me was well thought out > of > > what it should be; but naive as to what happens in real life, a SYSTEM > can > > create the Iraq war and unknowingly produce an ISIS, but was it really an > > intelligent move? > > > > Here is some of what Pirsig states in Chapter 8; > > > > "But to tear down a factory or revolt against a government....because it > > is a system is to attack effects rather than causes, and as long as the > > attack is against effects, no change is possible. The true system, the > real > > system is the construction of systemic thought itself, rationality of > > thought, and if a factory is torn down but the rationality of thought > which > > produced it is left standing, then that rationality will simply produce > > another factory." > > > > "If a revolution destroys a systematic government, but the same > systematic > > patterns of thought are left intact, > > then those same patterns will repeat themselves in succeeding > > governments." From Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert > > Pirsig > > > > In this imaginary story "the real system is the construction of systemic > > thought itself, rationality of thought" of the capitalist system > > which is based wholly on greed and self interest, which is a part of > > government just as much as it is part of business. The rationality of the > > CEO and the accountant in this made up story is the real system, "the > > construction of systemic thought itself, rationality of thought",is not > > science its disturbed and biased and will always make poor decisions > > concerning quality because of self interest, self importance and greed. > > > > From: "X Acto" <[email protected]> > > To: "moq discuss" <[email protected]> > > Sent: Saturday, September 9, 2017 11:23:21 AM > > Subject: Re: [MD] The need for quality > > > > Sent from my iPhone > > > > > On Sep 7, 2017, at 11:35 AM, Andrew Chu <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > From: "WES STEWART" <[email protected]> > > > To: "moq discuss" <[email protected]> > > > Sent: Wednesday, September 6, 2017 10:15:27 PM > > > Subject: Re: [MD] The need for quality > > > > > > Hell Dan and All; > > > > > > I get a lot of my philosophy of quality, not from Pirsig but from > > William Edwards Deming. It was back in the twenties when Walter Shewhart > > and Deming were searching for ways to improve the Quality of transmission > > lines at Bell Labs. They had defined Quality as a SYSTEM that is in a > state > > of continuous improvement. Shewhart and Deming looked at all SYSTEMs then > > used their intellect or reason to search for ways to improve the SYSTEM. > > > > > > Martin Luther King also used his intellect for ways to improve the > > SYSTEM, in which he paid the ultimate price that was delivered from > > Biologically dominated human beings. > > > > > Ron interjects: > > Hello Wes,Dan, All, > > I've been following the thread off and on and I was curious about how Wes > > defined the term "SYSTEM". > > In system theory it is defined as > > an entity with interrelated and interdependent parts; it is defined by > its > > boundaries and it is more than the sum of its parts (subsystem). > > Positive growth and adaptation of a system depend upon how well the > system > > is adjusted with its environment, and systems often exist to accomplish a > > common purpose (a work function) that also aids in the maintenance of the > > system or the operations may result in system failure. > > With the goal being isotelesis. > > the intelligent direction of effort toward the achievement of an end. > > > > > > > > > > Moq_Discuss mailing list > > Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. > > http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org > > Archives: > > http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ > > http://moq.org/md/archives.html > > Moq_Discuss mailing list > > Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. > > http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org > > Archives: > > http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ > > http://moq.org/md/archives.html > > > > > > -- > parser > Moq_Discuss mailing list > Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. > http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org > Archives: > http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ > http://moq.org/md/archives.html > > Moq_Discuss mailing list > Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. > http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org > Archives: > http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ > http://moq.org/md/archives.html > -- parser Moq_Discuss mailing list Listinfo, Unsubscribing etc. http://lists.moqtalk.org/listinfo.cgi/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org Archives: http://lists.moqtalk.org/pipermail/moq_discuss-moqtalk.org/ http://moq.org/md/archives.html
