>From: dyna <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>Subject: [Mpls] 3rd Ward Primary- Sly Di's Political Postmortem (Street Price= $.25)
>Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2002 13:29:15 -0600
>
> Thanks Markus for posting the numbers here. There were few
>surprises here- the 3rd's body politic behaved as historically
>expected, with Northeast precincts having double the turnout of the
>Northside's. Don Samuels was hurt by low turnout on his side of the

>river, but even if Northside turnout had equaled Northeast's Don

>still would have run second, though by smaller margin.

Not that it matters, but in fact, had voter turn-out in North equaled the turn-out for the NE, Don would have actually beaten Olin by a few votes and taken 1st in the primary (692-671).

>
> What is amazing here is how a virtual political unknown, Olin
>Moore, has finished ahead of media darling Don Samuels. It is a
>compliment to the voters of the 3rd that they saw past the
>considerable media canonization Don has received and mostly
>preferred Olin Moore. Or looking at it another way one could argue
>that the union label and endorsement Olin carried was worth more

>than hours of major media exposure and a blizzard of lit(ter).

Whereas, 75% of the votes cast were NOT for Olin, I think most voters in the 3rd would probably take exception to this statement.  

>
> For those that didn't make the cut- well, I hope you folks at least
>had fun. Notable was the fact that nearly half the candidates didn't
>even get a vote for each dollar of their filing fee. DFL identified
>candidates pulled in something like 60% of the votes- does anyone
>remember a Republican winning the 3rd? Even with Log Cabin
>endorsement republican candidate Valdis Rozentals came in 3rd with
>about 15% of the vote. Trailing by 4 votes DFLer Margo Ashmore was
>only 78 votes behind Don Samuels- I suspect if Margo had spent as
>much as Don had she'd be headed for the general election instead of

>Don.

 

>
> Drawing not quite 10% of the vote Shane Price provided further
>evidence that the Green Party is no longer a force in national or
>local politics. It is with some sadness that I watch the Green
>Party's departure from the world of major party status at midnight
>tonight. My mourning is somewhat relived by the promise of seeing
>many of the Green Party survivors in the DFL green caucuses
>though...
>
> Prognostications for the general election:
>
> This is Olin Moore's race to lose. Most of Margo Ashmore's support
>will go to Olin. Greens will largely support the more progressive
>candidate, Olin; While some Republicans may support Don Samuels for

>his "tough on crime" and anti union stance.

A very interesting theory.  When speaking with Margo's supporters over the last few weeks, i remember a recurring theme - that if Margo weren't running, they'd vote for Don. 

 

>
> While some would theorize that the larger turnout in the general
>election will help Don, I suspect the historic 2/1
>Northeast/Northside voter turnout will recur. Don may suffer from
>increased media scrutiny now that he has survived the primary- it
>would be wise for him to come clean and reveal just who's providing
>and paying for his printing ASAP. Don could switch to a union
>printer, but labor folks have long memories and probably wouldn't be

>swayed by such tokenism.

Oddly enough I hope this happens Dyna.  Everytime Don comes under media scrutiny more and more voters in the 3rd make a choice for Don.  A good analogy would be a small seismic tremor out in the middle of the ocean hardly causes a ripple in the water - at first.  On its travels towards landfall the small ripple gains energy and momentum.  Upon arrival at landfall, the small ripple becomes a tidal wave.  Where has all this energy come from?  From the voters in the 3rd, finally connecting with an authentic community voice. 

 

Dennis Plante

Jordan  

>
> Let the serious campaigning begin!
>
> Dyna Sluyter in Hawthorne
>
>>P1 210/992 = 21.17% Olin = 71, Don = 18
>>P2 335/1589 = 21.08% Olin = 101, Don = 20
>>P3 270/1872 = 14.42% Olin = 58, Don = 24
>>P4 295/1655 = 17.82% Olin = 97, Don = 26
>>P5 263/1202 = 21.88% Olin = 59, Don = 37
>>P6 103/303 = 33.99% Olin = 27, Don = 23
>>
>>Northeast precincts 1476/7613 = 19.39% Olin = 413, Don = 148
>>
>>P7 142/1936 = 7.33% Olin = 38, Don = 43
>>P8 157/1347 = 11.66% Olin = 22, Don = 91
>>P9 171/1788 = 9.56% Olin = 36, Don = 51
>>P10 115/1432 = 8.03% Olin = 22, Don = 30
>>
>>Northside precincts 585/6503 = 9.00% Olin = 118, Don = 215
>>
>>Overall turnout 2061/14116 = 14.60% Olin = 531, Don = 363
>>
>>Shane = 202, Margo = 295, Valdis = 299, Trish Shilling = 107
>>
>>Fred Markus, Horn Terrace, Ward Ten, in the Lyndale Neighborhood
>>
>
>--
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