Title: 3rd Ward Primary- Political Postmortem (Street
Price=
Dennis,
sit down, relax, take deep breaths, and please turn off the bold
text...
but even if Northside turnout had
equaled Northeast's Don
>still would have run second,
though by smaller margin.
Not that it matters, but in fact, had
voter turn-out in North equaled the turn-out for the NE, Don would
have actually beaten Olin by a few votes and taken 1st in the primary
(692-671).
To
simulate the effect the Northeast's 19.39% turnout would have had if
the Northside had the same 19.39% turnout instead of it's dismal 9%,
multiply each candidate's vote totals by the ratio of 9% to 19.39%=
2.15 or 215%. This calculation gives Olin Moore 254 votes from the
Northside + 413 from the Northeast =667 votes. Don Samuels would have
still come in 2nd but by a smaller margin with 148 Northeast +462
Northside =610 votes. Keep in mind that these projections are based on
the turnout/number of registered voters in the Northside. These
registered voter numbers are based on the number of voters who
registered in the past several years elections- many of these folks
are still registered from the high turnout 2000 presidential election
and given the high transience of the Northside 3rd ward many have
moved outside it's boundaries. Given this higher degree of registered
voter migration the Northside's turnout may not have been so bad.
These
numbers assume that both Olin and Don have equal untapped voter bases
available on the Northside. Given the incredible use Don Samuels'
campaign made of absentee votes (nearly half of his total) Don may
have already turned out most of his voters in the primary. Thusly the
larger turnout expected in the general election may not help Don. and
more likely will expand Olin's margin of victory.
>> What is amazing here is how a
virtual political unknown, Olin
>Moore, has finished ahead of media
darling Don Samuels. It is a
>compliment to the voters of the 3rd
that they saw past the
>considerable media canonization Don
has received and mostly
>preferred Olin
Moore.
Thanks
for the emphasis Dennis- I totally agree!
Whereas, 75% of the votes cast
were NOT for Olin, I think most voters in the 3rd would
probably take exception to this statement.
The
last mayoral primary had similar results, in fact the gap between R.T.
and Sharon may have been a bit narrower. Although Sharon looked to be
competitive, most of her support was in low turn out precincts and she
lost by about a 30% margin.
This is Olin Moore's race to lose.
Most of Margo Ashmore's support
>will go to
Olin.
Agreed.
A very interesting
theory. When speaking with Margo's supporters over the
last few weeks, i remember a recurring theme - that if Margo weren't
running, they'd vote for Don.
Much of
Margo's support was the Northeast traditional white ethnic union DFL
base. Don Samuel's union bashing will drive these folks straight to
Olin. Sadly, the race cards are definately in play here- There are
some voters who won't vote for Don because he's black, and some who
will vote for him because he's black.
Don may suffer from
>increased media scrutiny now that
he has survived the primary-
Agreed.
Oddly enough I hope this happens
Dyna. Everytime Don comes under media scrutiny more and
more voters in the 3rd make a choice for Don. A good
analogy would be a small seismic tremor out in the middle of the ocean
hardly causes a ripple in the water - at first. On its travels
towards landfall the small ripple gains energy and momentum.
Upon arrival at landfall, the small ripple becomes a tidal wave.
Where has all this energy come from? From the voters in the 3rd,
finally connecting with an authentic community
voice.
There
is good media and bad media...
As far
as hydrodynamics go, I suspect the kind we see on the Mississippi
makes for better analogies. Think of Don Samuels' campaign as a little
canoe that been playfully drifting downriver in the current. The
current is the media, and Don's campaign has been enjoying it so much
they've forgotten all about navigation. They just passed Basset's
Creek...
still
awaiting an accounting for the printing costs, etc.,
Dyna
Sluyter in Hawthorne
Dennis Plante
Jordan
>
> Let the serious campaigning
begin!
>
> Dyna Sluyter in
Hawthorne
>
>>P1 210/992 = 21.17% Olin = 71,
Don = 18
>>P2 335/1589 = 21.08% Olin = 101,
Don = 20
>>P3 270/1872 = 14.42% Olin = 58,
Don = 24
>>P4 295/1655 = 17.82% Olin = 97,
Don = 26
>>P5 263/1202 = 21.88% Olin = 59,
Don = 37
>>P6 103/303 = 33.99% Olin = 27,
Don = 23
>>
>>Northeast precincts 1476/7613 =
19.39% Olin = 413, Don = 148
>>
>>P7 142/1936 = 7.33% Olin = 38,
Don = 43
>>P8 157/1347 = 11.66% Olin = 22,
Don = 91
>>P9 171/1788 = 9.56% Olin = 36,
Don = 51
>>P10 115/1432 = 8.03% Olin = 22,
Don = 30
>>
>>Northside precincts 585/6503 =
9.00% Olin = 118, Don = 215
>>
>>Overall turnout 2061/14116 =
14.60% Olin = 531, Don = 363
>>
>>Shane = 202, Margo = 295, Valdis
= 299, Trish Shilling = 107
>>
>>Fred Markus, Horn Terrace, Ward
Ten, in the Lyndale Neighborhood
>>
>
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