On Fri, Mar 13, 2009 at 1:01 PM, XO <[email protected]> wrote: > Hmm I can do the same with setting up a baseline Gantt and running a Pert > Analysis. As I get closer to the end of the project I get more accurate.
Fair enough, but I will continue to claim that if your estimates are absolute and not relative then their accuracy is limited. Also I think you will spend more building a Gantt chart (especially for a team), with load balancing and all that than you will if you do simple burndowns. You have to do what you think will work best for you, clearly I don't think Gantt charts will work best for anyone. BTW Thanks for the thinking on this - you've just forced me to a write this up as Cutter Email Advisory :-) One more thing on my todo list. Cheers Mark > > On Fri, Mar 13, 2009 at 10:47 AM, Mark Levison < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> >> >> On Fri, Mar 13, 2009 at 12:25 PM, James Murphy <[email protected]>wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> 2009/3/13 Mark Levison [email protected] >>> >>>> >>>> It boils down to the question - do you think that humans are good at >>>> absolute estimation? My research says were not. You may believe >>>> differently. >>>> >>> But the question arises why do you feel that a gantt chart represents >>> something that is cast in stone and immutable? If you're talking about >>> software development then agile makes sense for all kinds of reasons and the >>> kind of dynamic and flexible scheduling you've got works - in fact is >>> necessary because the goalposts are often being moved on you. But in other >>> kinds of project whilst there is still a need for flexibility and >>> adaptability in how one progresses toward a goal the objectives and the >>> tasks to be complete can be far more clearly defined and at least some >>> elements can be tightly and accurately estimated (subject of course to the >>> required preconditions being met). >>> >>> For any methodology being able to get a picture of where you are now is >>> useful... for any useful methodology a realisation that things may change is >>> a necessity (-: >>> >> >> I understand the point but my thesis is that a Gantt chart does tell you >> what you think it does. Since I believe that abolute estimates are a false >> promise then I think that Gantt charts are just a way of fooling yourself. >> The only way people normally make these work is by adding lots of padding >> etc. >> >> Attached is a burndown chart with Uncertainty cones drawn in. Note in this >> case their hand drawn but it gives you an idea. At the start of a year long >> project we can tell you what quarter we will finish in. Half way though >> we'll have the month nailed, .... >> >> Anything else and either you've padded the plan a lot or your making a >> promise that you can't prove. >> >> Cheers >> Mark >> >> Blog: http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/ >> Recent Entries: Agile/Scrum Smells: >> http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/2008/06/agilescrum-smells.html >> Agile Games for Making Retrospectives Interesting: >> http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/2008/10/agile-games-for-making-retrospectives-interesting.html >> >> >> -- Cheers Mark Levison Blog: http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/ Recent Entries: Agile/Scrum Smells: http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/2008/06/agilescrum-smells.html Agile Games for Making Retrospectives Interesting: http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/2008/10/agile-games-for-making-retrospectives-interesting.html --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "MyLifeOrganized" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/myLifeOrganized?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
