On Fri, Mar 13, 2009 at 12:25 PM, James Murphy <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > 2009/3/13 Mark Levison [email protected] > >> >> It boils down to the question - do you think that humans are good at >> absolute estimation? My research says were not. You may believe differently. >> > But the question arises why do you feel that a gantt chart represents > something that is cast in stone and immutable? If you're talking about > software development then agile makes sense for all kinds of reasons and the > kind of dynamic and flexible scheduling you've got works - in fact is > necessary because the goalposts are often being moved on you. But in other > kinds of project whilst there is still a need for flexibility and > adaptability in how one progresses toward a goal the objectives and the > tasks to be complete can be far more clearly defined and at least some > elements can be tightly and accurately estimated (subject of course to the > required preconditions being met). > > For any methodology being able to get a picture of where you are now is > useful... for any useful methodology a realisation that things may change is > a necessity (-: > I understand the point but my thesis is that a Gantt chart does tell you what you think it does. Since I believe that abolute estimates are a false promise then I think that Gantt charts are just a way of fooling yourself. The only way people normally make these work is by adding lots of padding etc. Attached is a burndown chart with Uncertainty cones drawn in. Note in this case their hand drawn but it gives you an idea. At the start of a year long project we can tell you what quarter we will finish in. Half way though we'll have the month nailed, .... Anything else and either you've padded the plan a lot or your making a promise that you can't prove. Cheers Mark Blog: http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/ Recent Entries: Agile/Scrum Smells: http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/2008/06/agilescrum-smells.html Agile Games for Making Retrospectives Interesting: http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/2008/10/agile-games-for-making-retrospectives-interesting.html --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "MyLifeOrganized" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/myLifeOrganized?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
<<inline: Burndown With Uncertainty.png>>
