Hmm I can do the same with setting up a baseline Gantt and running a Pert Analysis. As I get closer to the end of the project I get more accurate.
On Fri, Mar 13, 2009 at 10:47 AM, Mark Levison <[email protected]>wrote: > > > On Fri, Mar 13, 2009 at 12:25 PM, James Murphy <[email protected]>wrote: > >> >> >> 2009/3/13 Mark Levison [email protected] >> >>> >>> It boils down to the question - do you think that humans are good at >>> absolute estimation? My research says were not. You may believe differently. >>> >> But the question arises why do you feel that a gantt chart represents >> something that is cast in stone and immutable? If you're talking about >> software development then agile makes sense for all kinds of reasons and the >> kind of dynamic and flexible scheduling you've got works - in fact is >> necessary because the goalposts are often being moved on you. But in other >> kinds of project whilst there is still a need for flexibility and >> adaptability in how one progresses toward a goal the objectives and the >> tasks to be complete can be far more clearly defined and at least some >> elements can be tightly and accurately estimated (subject of course to the >> required preconditions being met). >> >> For any methodology being able to get a picture of where you are now is >> useful... for any useful methodology a realisation that things may change is >> a necessity (-: >> > > I understand the point but my thesis is that a Gantt chart does tell you > what you think it does. Since I believe that abolute estimates are a false > promise then I think that Gantt charts are just a way of fooling yourself. > The only way people normally make these work is by adding lots of padding > etc. > > Attached is a burndown chart with Uncertainty cones drawn in. Note in this > case their hand drawn but it gives you an idea. At the start of a year long > project we can tell you what quarter we will finish in. Half way though > we'll have the month nailed, .... > > Anything else and either you've padded the plan a lot or your making a > promise that you can't prove. > > Cheers > Mark > > Blog: http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/ > Recent Entries: Agile/Scrum Smells: > http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/2008/06/agilescrum-smells.html > Agile Games for Making Retrospectives Interesting: > http://www.notesfromatooluser.com/2008/10/agile-games-for-making-retrospectives-interesting.html > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "MyLifeOrganized" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/myLifeOrganized?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
