On Dec 6, 11:04 am, Jonathan Hartley <[email protected]> wrote:
> or is opengl3+ penetration higher than I estimate?

I think the question's more complex, but the simple thing first.
According to the steam survey  http://store.steampowered.com/hwsurvey/videocard/
we can look at dx11 capable cards (which is synonymous with opengl4
ready) and dx10 ready, which is synonymous with opengl3 ready (correct
me if you think that is a wrong assumption) we have these absolute
hardware numbers:

DX11: Jul. 08.62%, Aug. 10.17%, Sep. 11.93%, Oct. 12.99%, Nov. 14.15%
DX10: Jul. 71.56%, Aug. 71.74%, Sep. 73.52%, Oct. 73.19%, Nov. 73.16%

That's something between 8%-17% growth *relative* for DX11. The %
numbers cited are exclusive, which of course means that total support
for DX10 is around 80%-90% of steam users.

Now I don't know how representative steam users are for whatever group
of people you target. Maybe very representative, maybe little. They're
certainly very representative of the people valve targets, and valve
is doing pretty well for themselves (so it would appear that it's also
a demographic with enough spare capital).

So what you need to consider is:
- What demographic do you target?
- What are the hardware capabilities of that demographic?
- What is the spending capacity of that demographic on a product like
yours?
- How much of a graphics quality tradeoff are you going to accept to
reach your targeted demographic?
- How much more work are you willing to put in for how many more
percent people reached?
- How is the hardware/driver landscape going to change during the time
you do this project?
- How relevant are all those decisions by the time you're done (could
be years from now)?
- Factoring in risks like: project overruns, hardware changes,
spending capacity, etc. what balance to you strike in work investment
vs. returns you will target?

Those are seriously difficult questions, and I don't think there's one
single right answer. There isn't even one simply wrong one. It is all
relative and saddled with so many degrees of uncertainty, that even if
you're fairly certain what hardware you're aiming for, you could still
make a bad decision.

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