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Hi Lordship,
Looking for an all encompassing formula is
IMHO the wrong path.
Using individual formulae, common sense and racing
knowledge so that some reliable knowledge is gained from previous race data that
aligns is a positive, so is holistic data that contradicts, in the sense that
you can now lay such horses which can superficially look good things. You are in
a better position than me to work it in NZ. I know you have penetrometers
- we do not have this for all courses in UK, I know some of your national hunt
horses have run well in UK but that is about all. What are the differences
between NZ and UK and Ireland? If there are any, then the methods get adapted
for NZ. There is no point in using methods developed for USA dirt racing and
applying them to NZ without that adaptation.
Robert
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, June 22, 2005 1:54
PM
Subject: Re: [racebase] Re: Penetrometer
readings from August 1
Hi Robert
Mmmmmmmmmm very interesting---I like the wind
bit
And you have a formula that collates all this
data ?????
And you can get it to work here in New
Zealand ?????
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, June 23, 2005 12:34
AM
Subject: Re: [racebase] Re:
Penetrometer readings from August 1
Lordship,
Time and speed ratings originated in UK, pre
WWII, and was applied to turf racing long before Ragozin adopted it in USA
in the 50s.
Phil Bull , co-founder of Timeform, made
several £millions ( at a time when a good house cost £500) from his
timefigures alone.
It is not using time alone, however, it is
using, pace, class, wind and going, fitness etc adjustments in a proper
balance , then applying that data properly to future races - all a bit
hard on the brain and missed out by those who want automatic selections. It
works in UK and Ireland, so unless races are all run at a crawl, I can't see
why it cannot work in NZ.
Robert
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, June 22, 2005 12:34
PM
Subject: Re: [racebase] Re:
Penetrometer readings from August 1
You are so right Peter
Totally aimed at "Holding
Hands" with Aussie.
As for speed ratings we will agree to
disagree
It woks wonderfully well in America where conditions are made
to order for
such a thing.
After all, that is where the speed
ratings first originated, and with good
reason
Dave
----- Original Message -----
From:
"Peter Harrop" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To:
<[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, June 22, 2005 11:18
PM
Subject: Re: [racebase] Re: Penetrometer readings from August
1
> I'll make a bit of a case.
> On Firm-Easy tracks
over 8636 races (to the beginning of 2003 - havn't
> updated this
stat for a while). Average out the last 4 times run over the
>
distance on Firm or Easy tracks by each horse in the race and take the
> horse
> with the best average time (no track speed
adjustments).
> The stats are :
> Races : 8636
> Wins :
1410
> S.Rate : 16.3%
> Divvies : $8501.85
> Profit :
-1.55%
>
> Far better than the -15% loss of the average
punter.
> But I agree. There doesn't seem much point in changing the
track
> conditions
> categories as it is merely cosmetic.
Probably has something to do with the
> merging of pools further
down the track I guess.
> Peter.
>
> ----- Original
Message -----
> From: "Lordship" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>
To: <[email protected]>
> Sent: Wednesday, June 22,
2005 9:40 PM
> Subject: Re: [racebase] Re: Penetrometer readings
from August 1
>
>
>> Sarcasm, I love it
>>
Your point being ????
>> Make a valid
case
>>
>> Lordship
>>
>>
>>
----- Original Message -----
>> From: "klp_wanganui"
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
>> To:
<[email protected]>
>> Sent: Wednesday, June 22,
2005 9:23 PM
>> Subject: [racebase] Re: Penetrometer readings
from August 1
>>
>>
>>> Thanks for that
(your) Lordship :-)
>>>
>>> I've just deleted all
my speed records and speed analysis systems
>>>
from
>>> my database.
>>>
>>> --- In
[email protected], "Lordship" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
wrote:
>>>> Winning times, never have
been,
>>>> and never will be a guide to picking winners in
THIS
COUNTRY
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
Yahoo! Groups
Links
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
Yahoo! Groups
Links
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
Yahoo! Groups Links
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