Fox Soccer Channel, Sunday 29 November, 11 a.m. Live.



________________________________
From: "Beaudoin, John" <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Sent: Mon, November 16, 2009 10:40:24 AM
Subject: RE: Football Numbers


What channel?  Do you know?  ESPN2 HD on a Sat morning?
 
John
 

________________________________

From:[email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] 
On Behalf Of Matt & Olga McSorley
Sent: Monday, November 16, 2009 10:39 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Football Numbers
 
Drogba is on fire. Big game for Chelski against The Arsenal the Sunday after 
Thanksgiving. :)
 

________________________________

From:"Beaudoin, John" <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Sent: Mon, November 16, 2009 10:32:45 AM
Subject: RE: Football Numbers
What’s happening in Sox land?
Can I talk soccer now?
Drogba is awesome.
 

________________________________

From:[email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] 
On Behalf Of Ray Salemi
Sent: Monday, November 16, 2009 7:49 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Football Numbers
 
I calculate that Belichick's decision to go for it gave us a 70% chance of 
winning the game.  Here's my logic.  Indy needed two things to happen for them 
to win.  They needed us not to convert, and they needed to score a touchdown 
from the30 with 2 minutes and no time outs.  Their chances were the product of 
two probabilities.

1.  Chances of stopping the Patriots conversion -- call it 60%
2.  Chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes left and  no timeouts -- call 
it 50% (remember all the punting they did that day.) 

Indy's chances of winning:  (60%) * (50%) = 30%

Patriots chances = 70%.

In addition, I think that Indy had the same 50% chance of getting a touchdown 
whether they were on our 30 or theirs.  

If Faulk were 3 feet downfield Belichick is a genius.  If Reggie Wayne doesn't 
make a fingertip catch, Belichick is a genius.  If the O-Line doesn't get 
gashed just when they needed to make a stop, Belichick is a genius.






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