Ahh, well there's the rub. I think it was higher than 30%.
I agree with Matt's comment though. If you are in 4-down territory then play for 4-downs and run it twice. There was no planning. On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 12:49 PM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: > OK, Since we're talking about imaginary numbers.... > > I think your estimate is a little on the low side, but for the sake of > argument I will give it to you. I think the Colts have a less than 30% > chance of scoring with no time outs if we kick it away. > > Any other coach in the league would be in danger of being fired today after > that call. > > ------------------------------ > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi > *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 11:08 AM > > *To:* [email protected] > *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers > > I'm saying that their chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes to go > is 50% > > and the chances of stopping the Pats was 60%. > > So the odds of the Colts winning was 30%. > > I'm OK with that. > > Ray > > > On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 8:59 AM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: > >> You guys are really drinking the Belichek Kool-aid. Are you really >> telling me that the chances of Manning scoring from the Colts 30 with no >> time outs are equal to that of them scoring on the Pats 30 under the same >> conditions? No matter how you slice it, it was a bad call. It cost the >> Patriots home field advantage in the playoffs, which can be the difference >> in a Superbowl drive. >> >> ------------------------------ >> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi >> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 8:45 AM >> *To:* [email protected] >> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers >> >> Steve O has cleverly summed up my numbers approach >> >> It seems to make sense that the Patriots had a much better chance of >>> making two yards than they had of stopping the Colts. >>> >> >> I bow to his explanatory powers! >> >> >> > > > -- > Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in > Just 12 Weeks" > www.leadingafteralayoff.com > > > > > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
