BTW. I can imagine no pain greater than listening to the knucklheads on WEEI trying to argue this.
On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 3:04 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: > Very cool. > > And the numbers work out with my approach as well. I was saying that the > Colts had a 60% chance of stopping the Patriots, but the actual average is > 40%. > > Colts win if they stop the pats (40%) AND they score (53%) = 21% chance of > a Colts win and a 79% chance of a Pats win. > > On a punt, The odds of the Colts getting a touchdown from their own 34 yard > line is 30% = a 30% chance of a Colts win and a 70% chance of a Pats win. > > If you say the Colts have a better offense than average then the decision > gets better because you have a 60% chance of keeping the ball out of > Manning's hands. > > > On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 2:42 PM, Steve Ouellette > <[email protected]>wrote: > >> Actually, this addresses the actual game: >> >> >> http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html >> >> >> On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 2:40 PM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected] >> > wrote: >> >>> I bet this guy would agree with me and Ray. >>> >>> http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 1:57 PM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> I agree with all the commentary about why the Pats never should have >>>> been in that position to begin with (poor time management, sketchy play >>>> calling, questionable penalty calls, etc.). However, I think Belichek's >>>> call was just ridiculous. Steve correctly points out that Manning had >>>> moved >>>> the team down the field on the previous drive (even that Pass Interference >>>> aided drive took 1:49), however the defense had stopped the Colts several >>>> times prior to that. They forced them to punt 8 times in the game (I think >>>> that was a record) and had 2 INTs. It is much tougher to score in 2 >>>> minutes >>>> from your own 30 than your opponents 30 - I don't think that is up for >>>> debate. You have simply GOT to give your defense a chance to keep the >>>> Colts >>>> from gaining ~70 yards on a drive in the final two minutes with one timeout >>>> (I stand corrected) left. It was just a bad call, and in an honest moment >>>> I >>>> think even BB would admit it. >>>> >>>> ------------------------------ >>>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Steve Ouellette >>>> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 1:17 PM >>>> >>>> *To:* [email protected] >>>> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers >>>> >>>> First, they still had one timeout, plus the two minute warning. And >>>> second, you must have missed the previous drive where they went through the >>>> Patriots like a hot knife through butter (albeit helped by a bogus 30-yard >>>> pass interference call) in less than two minutes, using no timeouts. >>>> >>>> Steve O >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 12:49 PM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]>wrote: >>>> >>>>> OK, Since we're talking about imaginary numbers.... >>>>> >>>>> I think your estimate is a little on the low side, but for the sake of >>>>> argument I will give it to you. I think the Colts have a less than 30% >>>>> chance of scoring with no time outs if we kick it away. >>>>> >>>>> Any other coach in the league would be in danger of being fired today >>>>> after that call. >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>>>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi >>>>> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 11:08 AM >>>>> >>>>> *To:* [email protected] >>>>> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers >>>>> >>>>> I'm saying that their chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes >>>>> to go is 50% >>>>> >>>>> and the chances of stopping the Pats was 60%. >>>>> >>>>> So the odds of the Colts winning was 30%. >>>>> >>>>> I'm OK with that. >>>>> >>>>> Ray >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 8:59 AM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]>wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> You guys are really drinking the Belichek Kool-aid. Are you really >>>>>> telling me that the chances of Manning scoring from the Colts 30 with no >>>>>> time outs are equal to that of them scoring on the Pats 30 under the same >>>>>> conditions? No matter how you slice it, it was a bad call. It cost the >>>>>> Patriots home field advantage in the playoffs, which can be the >>>>>> difference >>>>>> in a Superbowl drive. >>>>>> >>>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>>>>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi >>>>>> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 8:45 AM >>>>>> *To:* [email protected] >>>>>> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers >>>>>> >>>>>> Steve O has cleverly summed up my numbers approach >>>>>> >>>>>> It seems to make sense that the Patriots had a much better chance of >>>>>>> making two yards than they had of stopping the Colts. >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> I bow to his explanatory powers! >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in >>>>> Just 12 Weeks" >>>>> www.leadingafteralayoff.com >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >> >> >> >> > > > -- > Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in > Just 12 Weeks" > www.leadingafteralayoff.com > > > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. 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