Very cool. And the numbers work out with my approach as well. I was saying that the Colts had a 60% chance of stopping the Patriots, but the actual average is 40%.
Colts win if they stop the pats (40%) AND they score (53%) = 21% chance of a Colts win and a 79% chance of a Pats win. On a punt, The odds of the Colts getting a touchdown from their own 34 yard line is 30% = a 30% chance of a Colts win and a 70% chance of a Pats win. If you say the Colts have a better offense than average then the decision gets better because you have a 60% chance of keeping the ball out of Manning's hands. On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 2:42 PM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]>wrote: > Actually, this addresses the actual game: > > > http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html > > > On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 2:40 PM, Steve Ouellette > <[email protected]>wrote: > >> I bet this guy would agree with me and Ray. >> >> http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-1.html >> >> >> >> On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 1:57 PM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I agree with all the commentary about why the Pats never should have >>> been in that position to begin with (poor time management, sketchy play >>> calling, questionable penalty calls, etc.). However, I think Belichek's >>> call was just ridiculous. Steve correctly points out that Manning had moved >>> the team down the field on the previous drive (even that Pass Interference >>> aided drive took 1:49), however the defense had stopped the Colts several >>> times prior to that. They forced them to punt 8 times in the game (I think >>> that was a record) and had 2 INTs. It is much tougher to score in 2 minutes >>> from your own 30 than your opponents 30 - I don't think that is up for >>> debate. You have simply GOT to give your defense a chance to keep the Colts >>> from gaining ~70 yards on a drive in the final two minutes with one timeout >>> (I stand corrected) left. It was just a bad call, and in an honest moment I >>> think even BB would admit it. >>> >>> ------------------------------ >>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Steve Ouellette >>> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 1:17 PM >>> >>> *To:* [email protected] >>> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers >>> >>> First, they still had one timeout, plus the two minute warning. And >>> second, you must have missed the previous drive where they went through the >>> Patriots like a hot knife through butter (albeit helped by a bogus 30-yard >>> pass interference call) in less than two minutes, using no timeouts. >>> >>> Steve O >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 12:49 PM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> OK, Since we're talking about imaginary numbers.... >>>> >>>> I think your estimate is a little on the low side, but for the sake of >>>> argument I will give it to you. I think the Colts have a less than 30% >>>> chance of scoring with no time outs if we kick it away. >>>> >>>> Any other coach in the league would be in danger of being fired today >>>> after that call. >>>> >>>> ------------------------------ >>>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi >>>> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 11:08 AM >>>> >>>> *To:* [email protected] >>>> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers >>>> >>>> I'm saying that their chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes to >>>> go is 50% >>>> >>>> and the chances of stopping the Pats was 60%. >>>> >>>> So the odds of the Colts winning was 30%. >>>> >>>> I'm OK with that. >>>> >>>> Ray >>>> >>>> >>>> On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 8:59 AM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> You guys are really drinking the Belichek Kool-aid. Are you really >>>>> telling me that the chances of Manning scoring from the Colts 30 with no >>>>> time outs are equal to that of them scoring on the Pats 30 under the same >>>>> conditions? No matter how you slice it, it was a bad call. It cost the >>>>> Patriots home field advantage in the playoffs, which can be the difference >>>>> in a Superbowl drive. >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------ >>>>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>>>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Ray Salemi >>>>> *Sent:* Monday, November 16, 2009 8:45 AM >>>>> *To:* [email protected] >>>>> *Subject:* Re: Football Numbers >>>>> >>>>> Steve O has cleverly summed up my numbers approach >>>>> >>>>> It seems to make sense that the Patriots had a much better chance of >>>>>> making two yards than they had of stopping the Colts. >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> I bow to his explanatory powers! >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in >>>> Just 12 Weeks" >>>> www.leadingafteralayoff.com >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >> > > > > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
