The PI call was borderline. The cornerback did make contact downfield with the 
receiver before the ball got there but it was pretty minimal. It's the kind of 
call you'd expect the Colts to get at home in the fourth quarter. I can't fault 
the zebras for that.




________________________________
From: "Beaudoin, John" <[email protected]>
To: [email protected]
Sent: Mon, November 16, 2009 1:21:36 PM
Subject: RE: Football Numbers


It’s lazy because it ends the game sooner and with less thinking than if you 
have to play 4 to 8 defensive plays.
And it’s lazy because it may have a lower probability of success, but you do it 
because it easier to conceive.
 

________________________________

From:[email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] 
On Behalf Of Ray Salemi
Sent: Monday, November 16, 2009 1:19 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: Football Numbers
 
How is, "just get 2 yards and you win" lazy?  That's call winning.  You don't 
get style points.


On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 1:16 PM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> 
wrote:
Okay, if I must.
I think is was laziness and arrogance.
Lazy because 2 yards is the easy way out.  Just get two years and you win.
Arrogant because you think you can get two yards because you usually do get 
them when you need to.
 
So, he’d have otherwise have had to have HIS defense play several downs, which 
would have taken another 5 to 10 minutes of real time.
 
He tried it the easy (lazy) way.
 
But, given the history and track record, I don’t think it’s as bad as everyone 
is making it out to be.  It’s about a 7 bad.  Not a “10” bad.

________________________________

From:[email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] 
On Behalf Of Steve Gendron
Sent: Monday, November 16, 2009 12:50 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: RE: Football Numbers
 
OK, Since we're talking about imaginary numbers....
 
I think your estimate is a little on the low side, but for the sake of argument 
I will give it to you.  I think the Colts have a less than 30% chance of 
scoring with no time outs if we kick it away.  
 
Any other coach in the league would be in danger of being fired today after 
that call.

________________________________

>From:[email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] 
>On Behalf Of Ray Salemi
>Sent: Monday, November 16, 2009 11:08 AM
>To: [email protected]
>Subject: Re: Football Numbers
>I'm saying that their chances of scoring from the 30 with 2 minutes to go is 
>50%
>
>and the chances of stopping the Pats was 60%.
>
>So the odds of the Colts winning was 30%.
>
>I'm OK with that.
>
>Ray
>On Mon, Nov 16, 2009 at 8:59 AM, Steve Gendron <[email protected]> wrote:
>You guys are really drinking the Belichek Kool-aid.  Are you really telling me 
>that the chances of Manning scoring from the Colts 30 with no time outs are 
>equal to that of them scoring on the Pats 30 under the same conditions?  No 
>matter how you slice it, it was a bad call.  It cost the Patriots home field 
>advantage in the playoffs, which can be the difference in a Superbowl drive.  
>
________________________________

>>From:[email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] 
>>On Behalf Of Ray Salemi
>>Sent:Monday, November 16, 2009 8:45 AM
>>To: [email protected]
>>Subject: Re: Football Numbers
>>Steve O has cleverly summed up my numbers approach
>>It seems to make sense that the Patriots had a much better chance of making 
>>two yards than they had of stopping the Colts.
>>
>>I bow to his explanatory powers!
>> 
>
>
>
>-- 
>Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 
>12 Weeks"
>www.leadingafteralayoff.com
>
>
><BR
 
 



-- 
Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 
Weeks"
www.leadingafteralayoff.com





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