I don't have Beltre's defensive metrics at my fingertips, but they're outstanding, as good as anyone in baseball. Lowell was absolute bottom of the list last year -- essentially a lamp post. I know that was because of his hip, but his range was already sub-par the year before, and at 36, do you really have confidence his hip is going to just snap back into place? If you replace the worst-fielding 3B with one of the three best, what does that do for your defense?
Beltre had bone chips in his left shoulder last year, sucked, had shoulder surgery and then injured his groin. He's five years younger and I have much more faith that he'll bounce back. His three previous years were carbon copies of each other, with OPS+ (adjusted for park) of 105, 112 and 108; HRs were 25, 26, and 25. And he can run. Lowell's previous three years (pre-hip injury) were OPS+ of 104, 124, 103, HRs of 20, 21 and 17. Beltre's OPS outside of Safeco was 53 points higher last year, +159 in 08, +113 in 07. The park was death to him (Jason Bay, take note). So, while I don't think Beltre is a superstar, I think he's very good, and almost guaranteed to be better than Lowell this year. Steve O On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 9:50 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley <[email protected]>wrote: > I disagree. Perhaps he's a better defender, though probably not by much, > especially when you consider Lowell should be healthier next season than in > '09, given that he'll be more than a year out from hip surgery. Beltre's OBP > last year was .304 and his career is .325 -- Lowell gave the Sox .337 in a > season where he was hampered by injury and his career is .343. And he hit 17 > homers, which projects out to the low 20s in a full season. I'd be surprised > if Beltre hit significantly more than that in a full year at Fenway. The > only upside I can see to Beltre is he's younger (supposedly). > > I imagine Lowell in Arlington over 2010 will have similar numbers to Beltre > in Boston, if that's how everything shakes out. The difference is Texas will > be paying $3m for that production, Boston $9m plus whatever Beltre gets. > > -- Matt > > > ------------------------------ > *From:* Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> > *To:* [email protected] > *Sent:* Fri, December 11, 2009 9:09:40 PM > *Subject:* Re: Adrian Beltre > > Beltre is a brilliant defensive third baseman, and he's also a dead > right-handed pull hitter who was swallowed up by Seattle's home park the > last few years. He was hurt last year and pretty terrible, but overall a > pretty good player. Would be a fair step up from what Lowell gave us last > year. > > Steve O > > > On Fr.i, Dec 11, 2009 at 8:28 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> I don't get the attraction, if the rumors are true. Theo's fixations are a >> mystery to me. >> >> -- Matt >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
