So, on average, Beltre has saved two runs a month more than Lowell over the past three years (42 runs overall, which averages 14 per season), and offensively at best they're a wash. That just doesn't scream "significant upgrade" to me. Again, the big upside to Beltre is age, but this is a team that just sunk $12 million into a 34-year-old career journeyman middle infielder to be the starting shortstop, so obviously in some cases they're not put off by age.
If they can get Beltre at an advantageous contract, I could live with it. If they end up shelling out $60 million or more over four or five years, I'd say that's a bad deal. And even a team with a lot of money can't afford to make too many bad deals. They're already on the hook for $18 million in dead money this year. -- Matt ________________________________ From: Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> To: [email protected] Sent: Fri, December 11, 2009 10:58:21 PM Subject: Re: Adrian Beltre Just a little more on Beltre's defense. The Fielding Bible (http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/summary.asp) picked Beltre as the top defensive 3B in baseball in 2007 and 2008, and had him second behind Ryan Zimmerman last year. From 2006-2008, Beltre topped all 3B, with a +63 runs saved. Lowell was ninth, at +21 --- and we won't see that Mike Lowell again. Steve O On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 10:30 PM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> wrote: > >I don't have Beltre's defensive metrics at my fingertips, but they're >outstanding, as good as anyone in baseball. Lowell was absolute bottom of the >list last year -- essentially a lamp post. I know that was because of his hip, >but his range was already sub-par the year before, and at 36, do you really >have confidence his hip is going to just snap back into place? If you replace >the worst-fielding 3B with one of the three best, what does that do for your >defense? > >Beltre had bone chips in his left shoulder last year, sucked, had shoulder >surgery and then injured his groin. He's five years younger and I have much >more faith that he'll bounce back. His three previous years were carbon copies >of each other, with OPS+ (adjusted for park) of 105, 112 and 108; HRs were 25, >26, and 25. And he can run. Lowell's previous three years (pre-hip injury) >were OPS+ of 104, 124, 103, HRs of 20, 21 and 17. > >Beltre's OPS outside of Safeco was 53 points higher last year, +159 in 08, >+113 in 07. The park was death to him (Jason Bay, take note). > >So, while I don't think Beltre is a superstar, I think he's very good, and >almost guaranteed to be better than Lowell this year. > >Steve O > > > > >On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 9:50 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley <[email protected]> >wrote: > >I disagree. Perhaps he's a better defender, though probably not by much, >especially when you consider Lowell should be healthier next season than in >'09, given that he'll be more than a year out from hip surgery. Beltre's OBP >last year was .304 and his career is .325 -- Lowell gave the Sox .337 in a >season where he was hampered by injury and his career is .343. And he hit 17 >homers, which projects out to the low 20s in a full season. I'd be surprised >if Beltre hit significantly more than that in a full year at Fenway. The only >upside I can see to Beltre is he's younger (supposedly). >> >>I imagine Lowell in Arlington over 2010 will have similar numbers to Beltre >>in Boston, if that's how everything shakes out. The difference is Texas will >>be paying $3m for that production, Boston $9m plus >> whatever Beltre gets. >> >>-- Matt >> >> >> >>________________________________ From: Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >>To: [email protected] >>Sent: Fri, December 11, 2009 9:09:40 PM >>Subject: Re: Adrian Beltre >> >> >>Beltre is a brilliant defensive third baseman, and he's also a dead >>right-handed pull hitter who was swallowed up by Seattle's home park the last >>few years. He was hurt last year and pretty terrible, but overall a pretty >>good player. Would be a fair step up from what Lowell gave us last year. >> >>Steve O >> >> >> >>On Fr.i, Dec 11, 2009 at 8:28 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley <[email protected]> >>wrote: >> >>>>> >>>I don't get the attraction, if the rumors are true. Theo's fixations are a >>>mystery to me. >>> >>>-- Matt >>> >>>-- >>> >>>You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>>> >>>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>>> >>>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>[email protected]. >>>>>> >>>For more options, visit this group at >>>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>> >> >>-- >> >>You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>> >>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>> >>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>[email protected]. >>>> >>For more options, visit this group at >>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> >>>> >>-- >> >>You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>> >>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>> >>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>[email protected]. >>>> >>For more options, visit this group at >>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
