It has nothing to do with my advancing age, except perhaps for my slow descent into madness.
Here's my concern: This team has holes and it's going to take money to plug those holes because they don't have the assets in the system to fix them. So I'm unconvinced of the wisdom of spending $9 million to send a player out of town (when they'r already paying another player $9 million to play elsewhere), and then pay top dollar for players who are at best marginal upgrades to what they have. Scutaro is not a major upgrade to Gonzalez, yet they've committed four times the money. I'm afraid that Theo will once again commit huge dollars to a non-star player, which leaves less money for genuine studs. If he can get Beltre at reasonable dollars, I'll be OK with it. But history says this is the kind of guy he overpays for. -- Matt ________________________________ From: Ray Salemi <[email protected]> To: [email protected] Sent: Sat, December 12, 2009 9:07:03 AM Subject: Re: Adrian Beltre Let's not underestimate the psychological effect of men seeing ballplayers their age retiring. Leads to a lot of irrational "He can still do it!" thinking. But at 47, I've kind of moved past that. On Sat, Dec 12, 2009 at 8:33 AM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> wrote: That's average over the three previous years -- when Lowell was younger, with a good hip. Last year it was the difference between the best (second-best?) and the worst -- 40-50 runs if you figure it over a full season. So yes, if you can go from No. 32 to No. 1 or 2, that to me is significant, unless you feel defense doesn't matter at all. And in your scenario, you just close your eyes, click your heels and hope that Lowell is healthy and can move quicker than a wounded sloth. > >No, I don't want to sign him for five years and $60 million. If they can get >him for three years and 25-30 million -- Chone Figgins money -- I would do it. > >I'm not a huge fan of Marco Scutaro, though I understand the signing and much >prefer him to the legend of Alex Gonzalez, but he doesn't have the hip of an >80-year-old man, so I don't know that it's relevant to Mike Lowell. > >Steve O > > > >On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 11:25 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley <[email protected]> >wrote: > >So, on average, Beltre has saved two runs a month more than Lowell over the >past three years (42 runs overall, which averages 14 per season), and >offensively at best they're a wash. That just doesn't scream "significant >upgrade" to me. Again, the big upside to Beltre is age, but this is a team >that just sunk $12 million into a 34-year-old career journeyman middle >infielder to be the starting shortstop, so obviously in some cases they're not >put off by age. >> >>If they can get Beltre at an advantageous contract, I could live with it. If >>they end up shelling out $60 million or more over four or five years, I'd say >>that's a bad deal. And even a team with a lot of money can't afford to make >>too many bad deals. They're already on the hook for $18 million in dead money >>this year. >> >>-- Matt >> >> >>________________________________ From: Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >>To: [email protected] >>Sent: Fri, December 11, 2009 10:58:21 PM >>Subject: Re: Adrian Beltre >> >> >>Just a little more on Beltre's defense. The Fielding Bible >>(http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/summary.asp) picked Beltre as >>the top defensive 3B in baseball in 2007 and 2008, and had him second behind >>Ryan Zimmerman last year. From 2006-2008, Beltre topped all 3B, with a +63 >>runs saved. Lowell was ninth, at +21 --- and we won't see that Mike Lowell >>again. >> >>Steve O >> >> >> >>On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 10:30 PM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >>wrote: >> >>I don't have Beltre's defensive metrics at my fingertips, but they're >>outstanding, as good as anyone in baseball. Lowell was absolute bottom of the >>list last year -- essentially a lamp post. I know that was because of his >>hip, but his range was already sub-par the year before, and at 36, do you >>really have confidence his hip is going to just snap back into place? If you >>replace the worst-fielding 3B with one of the three best, what does that do >>for your defense? >>> >>>Beltre had bone chips in his left shoulder last year, sucked, had shoulder >>>surgery and then injured his groin. He's five years younger and I have much >>>more faith that he'll bounce back. His three previous years were carbon >>>copies of each other, with OPS+ (adjusted for park) of 105, 112 and 108; HRs >>>were 25, 26, and 25. And he can run. Lowell's previous three years (pre-hip >>>injury) were OPS+ of 104, 124, 103, HRs of 20, 21 and 17. >>> >>>Beltre's OPS outside of Safeco was 53 points higher last year, +159 in 08, >>>+113 in 07. The park was death to him (Jason Bay, take note). >>> >>>So, while I don't think Beltre is a superstar, I think he's very good, and >>>almost guaranteed to be better than Lowell this year. >>> >>>Steve O >>> >>> >>> >>> >>>On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 9:50 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley <[email protected]> >>>wrote: >>> >>>I disagree. Perhaps he's a better defender, though probably not by much, >>>especially when you consider Lowell should be healthier next season than in >>>'09, given that he'll be more than a year out from hip surgery. Beltre's OBP >>>last year was .304 and his career is .325 -- Lowell gave the Sox .337 in a >>>season where he was hampered by injury and his career is .343. And he hit 17 >>>homers, which projects out to the low 20s in a full season. I'd be surprised >>>if Beltre hit significantly more than that in a full year at Fenway. The >>>only upside I can see to Beltre is he's younger (supposedly). >>>> >>>>I imagine Lowell in Arlington over 2010 will have similar numbers to Beltre >>>>in Boston, if that's how everything shakes out. The difference is Texas >>>>will be paying $3m for that production, Boston $9m plus whatever Beltre >>>>gets. >>>> >>>>-- Matt >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>________________________________ From: Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >>>>To: [email protected] >>>>Sent: Fri, December 11, 2009 9:09:40 PM >>>>Subject: Re: Adrian Beltre >>>> >>>> >>>>Beltre is a brilliant defensive third baseman, and he's also a dead >>>>right-handed pull hitter who was swallowed up by Seattle's home park the >>>>last few years. He was hurt last year and pretty terrible, but overall a >>>>pretty good player. Would be a fair step up from what Lowell gave us last >>>>year. >>>> >>>>Steve O >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>On Fr.i, Dec 11, 2009 at 8:28 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley >>>><[email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>I don't get the attraction, if the rumors are true. Theo's fixations are a >>>>mystery to me. >>>>> >>>>>-- Matt >>>>> >>>>>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>>Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>>[email protected]. >>>>>For more options, visit this group at >>>>>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>> >>>> >>>>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>>>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>[email protected]. >>>>For more options, visit this group at >>>>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>> >>>>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>>>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>[email protected]. >>>>For more options, visit this group at >>>>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>> >>> >> >>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>[email protected]. >>For more options, visit this group at >>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> >>--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >>"Red Sox Citizens" group. >>To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>[email protected]. >>For more options, visit this group at >>http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > >--You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >"Red Sox Citizens" group. >To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >[email protected]. >For more options, visit this group at >http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" www.leadingafteralayoff.com --You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
