Let's not underestimate the psychological effect of men seeing ballplayers their age retiring.
Leads to a lot of irrational "He can still do it!" thinking. But at 47, I've kind of moved past that. On Sat, Dec 12, 2009 at 8:33 AM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]>wrote: > That's average over the three previous years -- when Lowell was younger, > with a good hip. Last year it was the difference between the best > (second-best?) and the worst -- 40-50 runs if you figure it over a full > season. So yes, if you can go from No. 32 to No. 1 or 2, that to me is > significant, unless you feel defense doesn't matter at all. And in your > scenario, you just close your eyes, click your heels and hope that Lowell is > healthy and can move quicker than a wounded sloth. > > No, I don't want to sign him for five years and $60 million. If they can > get him for three years and 25-30 million -- Chone Figgins money -- I would > do it. > > I'm not a huge fan of Marco Scutaro, though I understand the signing and > much prefer him to the legend of Alex Gonzalez, but he doesn't have the hip > of an 80-year-old man, so I don't know that it's relevant to Mike Lowell. > > Steve O > > > On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 11:25 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley < > [email protected]> wrote: > >> So, on average, Beltre has saved two runs a month more than Lowell over >> the past three years (42 runs overall, which averages 14 per season), and >> offensively at best they're a wash. That just doesn't scream "significant >> upgrade" to me. Again, the big upside to Beltre is age, but this is a team >> that just sunk $12 million into a 34-year-old career journeyman middle >> infielder to be the starting shortstop, so obviously in some cases they're >> not put off by age. >> >> If they can get Beltre at an advantageous contract, I could live with it. >> If they end up shelling out $60 million or more over four or five years, I'd >> say that's a bad deal. And even a team with a lot of money can't afford to >> make too many bad deals. They're already on the hook for $18 million in dead >> money this year. >> >> -- Matt >> >> ------------------------------ >> *From:* Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >> *To:* [email protected] >> *Sent:* Fri, December 11, 2009 10:58:21 PM >> *Subject:* Re: Adrian Beltre >> >> Just a little more on Beltre's defense. The Fielding Bible ( >> http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/summary.asp) picked Beltre >> as the top defensive 3B in baseball in 2007 and 2008, and had him second >> behind Ryan Zimmerman last year. From 2006-2008, Beltre topped all 3B, >> with a +63 runs saved. Lowell was ninth, at +21 --- and we won't see that >> Mike >> Lowell again. >> >> Steve O >> >> >> On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 10:30 PM, Steve Ouellette < >> [email protected]> wrote: >> >>> I don't have Beltre's defensive metrics at my fingertips, but they're >>> outstanding, as good as anyone in baseball. Lowell was absolute bottom of >>> the list last year -- essentially a lamp post. I know that was because of >>> his hip, but his range was already sub-par the year before, and at 36, do >>> you really have confidence his hip is going to just snap back into place? If >>> you replace the worst-fielding 3B with one of the three best, what does >>> that do for your defense? >>> >>> Beltre had bone chips in his left shoulder last year, sucked, had >>> shoulder surgery and then injured his groin. He's five years younger and I >>> have much more faith that he'll bounce back. His three previous years were >>> carbon copies of each other, with OPS+ (adjusted for park) of 105, 112 and >>> 108; HRs were 25, 26, and 25. And he can run. Lowell's previous three years >>> (pre-hip injury) were OPS+ of 104, 124, 103, HRs of 20, 21 and 17. >>> >>> Beltre's OPS outside of Safeco was 53 points higher last year, +159 in >>> 08, +113 in 07. The park was death to him (Jason Bay, take note). >>> >>> So, while I don't think Beltre is a superstar, I think he's very good, >>> and almost guaranteed to be better than Lowell this year. >>> >>> Steve O >>> >>> >>> >>> On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 9:50 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley < >>> [email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> I disagree. Perhaps he's a better defender, though probably not by much, >>>> especially when you consider Lowell should be healthier next season than in >>>> '09, given that he'll be more than a year out from hip surgery. Beltre's >>>> OBP >>>> last year was .304 and his career is .325 -- Lowell gave the Sox .337 in a >>>> season where he was hampered by injury and his career is .343. And he hit >>>> 17 >>>> homers, which projects out to the low 20s in a full season. I'd be >>>> surprised >>>> if Beltre hit significantly more than that in a full year at Fenway. The >>>> only upside I can see to Beltre is he's younger (supposedly). >>>> >>>> I imagine Lowell in Arlington over 2010 will have similar numbers to >>>> Beltre in Boston, if that's how everything shakes out. The difference is >>>> Texas will be paying $3m for that production, Boston $9m plus whatever >>>> Beltre gets. >>>> >>>> -- Matt >>>> >>>> >>>> ------------------------------ >>>> *From:* Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >>>> *To:* [email protected] >>>> *Sent:* Fri, December 11, 2009 9:09:40 PM >>>> *Subject:* Re: Adrian Beltre >>>> >>>> Beltre is a brilliant defensive third baseman, and he's also a dead >>>> right-handed pull hitter who was swallowed up by Seattle's home park the >>>> last few years. He was hurt last year and pretty terrible, but overall a >>>> pretty good player. Would be a fair step up from what Lowell gave us last >>>> year. >>>> >>>> Steve O >>>> >>>> >>>> On Fr.i, Dec 11, 2009 at 8:28 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley < >>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> I don't get the attraction, if the rumors are true. Theo's fixations >>>>> are a mystery to me. >>>>> >>>>> -- Matt >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>>> [email protected]. >>>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>> [email protected]. >>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>> >>>> -- >>>> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>>> Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>>> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>>> [email protected]. >>>> For more options, visit this group at >>>> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>>> >>> >>> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to redsoxcitizens+ >> [email protected]. >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "Red Sox Citizens" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> > . > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. > -- Author of "Leading After a Layoff: Reignite Your Team's Productivity in Just 12 Weeks" www.leadingafteralayoff.com -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Red Sox Citizens" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en.
