Jarang posting. Namun sekali baca langsung membuka mata. Simple dan padat. Ditunggu tulisan orgindo berikutnya. On May 1, 2013 11:28 PM, "orgindo" <[email protected]> wrote:
> ** > > > My thought on HRUM. > > Sekadar pemikiran saya dari sisi investor long term. > > Saya dulu berpikir bahwa HRUM adalah value-buy, tapi setelah mengecek > lebih dalam awal tahun ini, berikut ringkasan pemikiran saya: > > 1. cadangan HRUM vs. ITMG: 106M vs. 550M > > HRUM: 106M > ITMG: 550M > PTBA: 2,000M > ADRO: 1,000M > > 2. Produksi 2012 > HRUM: 12M > ITMG: 27M > PTBA: 16M > ADRO: 47M > > 3. With those two pieces of information: > - HRUM only have less than 10 years. Which means, at p/e ratio of 8.8, it > leaves little room for earning. You can only extract another 8 years of > earnings. That is assuming, the margin stays the same. > - At current coal price and prospect, I do not see much upside, that the > margin will improve > - The management might be incentivized to reduce production, to extend the > production years, however, this is not of the best interest of the > shareholder, as operation cost is ongoing. > > 4. considering this information, there is not enough margin for value > play. Assuming the earning stays the same, if I am going to buy this for > value perspective, I will only buy this when it reach 2,000 for sufficient > margin of safety. > > Honestly, banyak saham yang menyediakan lebih banyak value daripada HRUM. > Valuasi ITMG lebih mahal dari HRUM, tapi ITMG memiliki runway lebih lama > drpd HRUM. > The only catalyst for HRUM, if they find more coal reserve, other than > this, it will be a value-trap, or at most, speculating play. > > Mohon masukan nya kalau ada yang salah. > > Chris > > >
