Re: Iran
xponentrob wrote: Agreed. Iranians seem to have had no stomach for a general strike. I think they would like to, but the reality on the ground is not conducive to an action that would entail incredible sacrifice and an obvious hardship on all. (I'm guessing it generally works this way in fascist countries?) Yes. Been there. Our fascist dictatorship fell (probably) because the fascists were tired of being ridiculed by the population. The subtle and persistent strategy of Humour is far more powerful than guns or strikes. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Iran
On Sun, Jun 28, 2009 at 12:38 AM, Charlie Bell char...@culturelist.orgwrote: On 28/06/2009, at 1:25 PM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote: Um... a ship? Do you mean the Marines patrol boat a couple of years ago? Wasn't a ship. Sorry Charlie. You have to remember that, when I was I kid I was on many a boat longer than 200 meters, with the biggest over 300 meters and 30k tons. I realize that it wasn't a big ship, but the way I was raised: saltwater=ship, freshwater=boat. Size didn't matter. It's not size, it's type. Submarines are boats... (they're also it, not she to anyone who's not actually a submariner). :-) Sure, it's probably a regional usage difference (like LEFT-enant in Britain and Australia), but a patrol craft, a fast-attack craft (like the couple of hydrofoils with guns we've had over the years) or a merchant vessel with only 15 or so crew is usually a boat if you're talking about a British vessel. C. That's how it was when I was in the USN, 29 years ago. Subs are 'boats' as are small craft generally. Although, we used to refer to our ship as a 'boat' as in Gotta report aboard the boat in the morning. (I served aboard USS Eisenhower, but in an aircraft squadron, I was not in ship''s company). And, I thought it was pronounced LEF-tenant. john air-head maru ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Iran
- Original Message - From: Dan M dsummersmi...@comcast.net To: 'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion' brin-l@mccmedia.com Sent: Saturday, June 27, 2009 5:15 PM Subject: RE: Iran Reports from inside Iran say the Guard is split and mostly inactive. The Army is similarly. The police have been ineffective because they won't shoot their own countrymen. That is why most of the violence has been committed by Basiji and Arab imports (such as Hezbollah and some Afghan Taliban with possibly some Russians thrown in according to rumor) Many of the people committing violence are non-Farsi speakers and that is a solid indictment of the gravity of the situation. I'm curious to see where you stand now. I read your source, I think at this point we must both recognize that we both access several sources not noted in our discussion, and that the overall situation is much more complex than we are describing. I mention this because I believe we need to broaden the terms of the discussion a bit if either of us are to make arguments that give sensible predictions. I think most people would like to know what is coming from Iran over the next few years as recent events there could destabilize the local equilibrium. and realize that info coming from the country has been really cut backso there is a lot more speculation than fact in the outside world. Media info is cut back dramatically, but there is still a lot, a whole lot, of lower quality information sneaking out. There is still a fair bit of higher quality info coming from Iran, just not from media outlets. I know the Rand Corporation thinks the Revolutionary Guard is the big winner in this http://www.rand.org/commentary/2009/06/22/RC.html Interesting article, and probably accurate in some particulars, but I think it misses some crucial points. The group that has gained the greatest enhancement is the Basiji (your brownshirts). They have carried the load in the suppression (as semi-official and sanctioned enforcers) and (it seems to me) to be the locus of the increase in outright fascism in Iran. At this point Iran has to be defined as a fascist state on par with the WW2 fascists. This is a grave concern for reasons I think most of us already recognize. Even with reporters locked up in their hotel rooms, I would guess than marches of tens of thousands would be heard in the hotels. The types of reports that are getting out indicate that, if anything, the younger more militant aspects of the guard are increasing their power. (I'm thinking of the folks who captured a UK ship as an example). I would expect that the key to recognizing a nearby demonstration would not be the sounds made by protestors, but the sounds of gunfire from those supressing the protestors. Currently, I don't think there are any demonstrations that have 10K protesting, but there may occasionally still be 1K or 2K out on the street (max). Amedinajad is pretty much irrelevant ATM. He may be a figurehead for the younger more militant guard members and their brownshirt auxillary. Here we disagree. And what we disagree about is who Amadinajad fronts for. I contest that he is a schill for Khamenei. Further, I believe that the entire point of the clampdown is so that Khamenei can ensure that his son becomes the next Supreme Leader. Amadinajad is constitutionally prevented from serving as president after the upcoming term ends. I see three potential events coming. The constitution is changed to eradicate the term limits, the law is changed so that Prime Minister once again becomes the important position it once was with Amadinijad locked in, or Khamenei grooms someone equally pliable as the next president. It is really all about Khamenei and his scoin maintaining power. A national strike is being called (starting today). How that goes will determine the course and success of this revolt. From what I read, folks will have a hard time not working and not getting paid at all. With unemployment at 25%, and virtually all money coming from oil sales, and with everything government subsidized, the government has a lot of power. Again, I'll agree that we are working on minimal information, but I haven't been able to see a good source since Monday that indicates that the reform is gaining a foothold. If anything, its falling back. Agreed. Iranians seem to have had no stomach for a general strike. I think they would like to, but the reality on the ground is not conducive to an action that would entail incredible sacrifice and an obvious hardship on all. (I'm guessing it generally works this way in fascist countries?) It reminds me of the USSR in the '70s, when my friend from Moscow said folks became disillusioned. I don't doubt that in two decades, we could see reform. But, in between, the odds are that the younger more militant members of the Republican guard are the most likely to have
Re: Iran
On 28/06/2009, at 8:15 AM, Dan M wrote: Even with reporters locked up in their hotel rooms, I would guess than marches of tens of thousands would be heard in the hotels. The types of reports that are getting out indicate that, if anything, the younger more militant aspects of the guard are increasing their power. (I'm thinking of the folks who captured a UK ship as an example). Um... a ship? Do you mean the Marines patrol boat a couple of years ago? Wasn't a ship. C. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Iran
Original Message: - From: Charlie Bell char...@culturelist.org Date: Sun, 28 Jun 2009 12:10:27 +1000 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Re: Iran On 28/06/2009, at 8:15 AM, Dan M wrote: Even with reporters locked up in their hotel rooms, I would guess than marches of tens of thousands would be heard in the hotels. The types of reports that are getting out indicate that, if anything, the younger more militant aspects of the guard are increasing their power. (I'm thinking of the folks who captured a UK ship as an example). Um... a ship? Do you mean the Marines patrol boat a couple of years ago? Wasn't a ship. Sorry Charlie. You have to remember that, when I was I kid I was on many a boat longer than 200 meters, with the biggest over 300 meters and 30k tons. I realize that it wasn't a big ship, but the way I was raised: saltwater=ship, freshwater=boat. Size didn't matter. But that's what I meant, yea. Even in Britian you might have heard the song the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. I was on the Mighty Fitz a number of times and can still close my eyes amd remember the smell of those boats. Dan M. mail2web - Check your email from the web at http://link.mail2web.com/mail2web ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Iran
On 28/06/2009, at 1:25 PM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net wrote: Um... a ship? Do you mean the Marines patrol boat a couple of years ago? Wasn't a ship. Sorry Charlie. You have to remember that, when I was I kid I was on many a boat longer than 200 meters, with the biggest over 300 meters and 30k tons. I realize that it wasn't a big ship, but the way I was raised: saltwater=ship, freshwater=boat. Size didn't matter. It's not size, it's type. Submarines are boats... (they're also it, not she to anyone who's not actually a submariner). :-) Sure, it's probably a regional usage difference (like LEFT-enant in Britain and Australia), but a patrol craft, a fast-attack craft (like the couple of hydrofoils with guns we've had over the years) or a merchant vessel with only 15 or so crew is usually a boat if you're talking about a British vessel. C. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Iran
Things do not look overly promising for the protesters, but if they manage to make it through tomorrow without their heads being cracked Iranian public sentiment may swing decisively in their direction. It really depends on how hard the Supreme Ayatollah swings back at them. We should see by morning. Well, it's the next day, and I don't see any resolution. I think that the splits in the leadership are promising, though small. But.the best organized force is the Revolutionary Guard, and they appear to be fanatical. I'd guess, if push came to shove, they wouldn't mind killing thousands to keep orderand I don't see anyone standing up to them in a fight. Dan M. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Iran
Dan wrote: Things do not look overly promising for the protesters, but if they manage to make it through tomorrow without their heads being cracked Iranian public sentiment may swing decisively in their direction. It really depends on how hard the Supreme Ayatollah swings back at them. We should see by morning. Well, it's the next day, and I don't see any resolution. I think that the splits in the leadership are promising, though small. But.the best organized force is the Revolutionary Guard, and they appear to be fanatical. I'd guess, if push came to shove, they wouldn't mind killing thousands to keep orderand I don't see anyone standing up to them in a fight. Whatever the final outcome Ahmadinejad's position has to have been severely weakened. As he's a nut case, this is a very good thing. Doug ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Iran
Whatever the final outcome Ahmadinejad's position has to have been severely weakened. As he's a nut case, this is a very good thing. OK, I'll agree that his position with some factions within the ruling elite has been lowered. The real question, of course, it what is the position of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He backed Ahmadinejad strongly, and issued a clear threat of violence against any protesters. The Revolutionary Guard and the associated paramilitary (brown shirts) appear eager for violence. So, the risk of Ahmadinejad doing something against Iran's interests is probably lower, but I think he was always on a leash. My prediction is that, after a few more demonstrations of a few hundred people get knocked down with scores dead, the struggle will go underground. Thirty years from now, there will significant changes, but before then I think that Iran will have a score or so of nuclear weapons, without even the command and control that Pakistan has over its nukes. Pakistan is looking a bit better now than 2 months ago, but it is still very dangerous. One thing that I read that is very disturbing to me is that it is near impossible to predict the future of Iran, even for those who devoted their life to studying Iran, even for those who are ruling Iran. Once they have the capacity to eliminate Israel in half and hour (probably 5 years from now), I fear that after that, an Ayatollah who wishes to hasten the return of the Mahdi will be come Supreme Ayatollahor that a faction of the National Guard that does will gain command and control of, say, 3 nuclear missilescause that's all it would take to virtually eliminate Israel. Dan M. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Iran
On 6/22/2009 7:36:48 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote: Things do not look overly promising for the protesters, but if they manage to make it through tomorrow without their heads being cracked Iranian public sentiment may swing decisively in their direction. It really depends on how hard the Supreme Ayatollah swings back at them. We should see by morning. Well, it's the next day, and I don't see any resolution. I think that the splits in the leadership are promising, though small. But.the best organized force is the Revolutionary Guard, and they appear to be fanatical. I'd guess, if push came to shove, they wouldn't mind killing thousands to keep orderand I don't see anyone standing up to them in a fight. I wouldn't be so quick to judge. Reports from inside Iran say the Guard is split and mostly inactive. The Army is similarly. The police have been ineffective because they won't shoot their own countrymen. That is why most of the violence has been committed by Basiji and Arab imports (such as Hezbollah and some Afghan Taliban with possibly some Russians thrown in according to rumor) Many of the people committing violence are non-Farsi speakers and that is a solid indictment of the gravity of the situation. The Council of Experts is split and the Ayatollahs seem to be waiting for Khamenei to commit an irrevocable fuckup before they move. Many Mullahs are going to the protests themselves and making pronouncements on behalf of the protestors. A Revolutionary Guard General was arrested for refusing to fire on protestors. Rafsanjani's daughter was arrested for attending a protest. The longer this continues the better it gets for the protestors I think. The general trend seems to be favoring them. Amedinajad is pretty much irrelevant ATM. It really hinges on Khamenei and what he does, which I expect will be screwup because he really isn't much more than a hack/wonk in the overall picture and I don't think he is skilled enough to wiggle out of the crack he has gotten himself into. A national strike is being called (starting today). How that goes will determine the course and success of this revolt. xponent #IranElection Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Iran [News]
From a website run by Anonymous (the group): http://iran.whyweprotest.net/news-current-events/1966-green-brief-6-niteowl.html The Green Brief #6 - NiteOwl Please retweet this link. I'm Josh Shahryar AKA NiteOwl - iran_translator on twitter - and I've been immersed in tweets from Iran for the past several hours. I have tried to be extremely careful in choosing my tweet sources and have tried maximally to avoid listening to media banter. What I have compiled below is what I can confirm through my tweets to have happened in the past day and in the past week in Iran. Remember, this is all from tweets. There is NOTHING included here that is not from a reliable tweet. No news media outlets have been used in the compilation of this short brief as I would like to call it. These are the important happenings that I can positively confirm from Monday, June 22 in Iran. (If I cannot positively confirm, I have indicated that I can't.) 1. Protests were held throughout Tehran today. The main protest was held at 7 Tir Square where 3-5 thousand people gathered to remember and mourn Neda - the protester killed on Saturday. However, soon hundreds of IRG, police, Basij and plainclothesmen gathered and violently tried to disperse the protesters. It took hours to disperse all the protesters. The security forces used batons and fired tear gas shells as well as firing weapons in the air. Dozens of people were injured, including many women. Helicopters were flying over Tehran for the second day. There were also reports of helicopters firing tear gas shells at people - they have not been fully confirmed. 2. There was also a gathering of about 1,000 people in Valiasr Avenue, meeting security forces who sparked a confrontation. It was not as violent as the one on 7 Tir, but many people were injured there as well. There was a huge rally held by Ahmadinejad's supporters at Valiasr for his victory speech. The participants were mostly people from the provinces, children and older Iranians. There were also a large number of government employees. 3. News of protests around the country was not relayed through tweets much today; however, sources confirmed that at least some rallies and protests were held in Tabriz where protesters met with violent attacks by the security forces. Later in the night as people chanted Allah o Akbar from the rooftops, there were reports of clashes in northern and western Tehran between protesters and security forces. Chants of Allah o Akbar also echoed across the country. Candles were lit throughout the country in memory of protesters that have been killed so far. The number of confirmed deaths stands close to 50 now and there have been more than a thousand injured. 4. Sources claim that the government is considering expelling some diplomatic missions because they've helped protesters or are accused of masterminding the unrest. The government earlier in the day alleged that the US had paid 400 million dollars to people in order to organize unrest in Iran. They also blamed the UK and Germany - saying the latter was coaxed into taking action by Israel - how Israel manages to coax other countries was beyond our sources. The Guardian Council has now announced that there were 3 million extra votes cast. Other information is unreliable at this point or various sources exist. 5. The government is actively trying to suppress news from getting out. BBC and Al-Arabiya's correspondents were told to get out in 24 hours, twitter sites are being hacked, people are being tricked into getting out late at night by others chanting in the streets who are actually Basijis and the spread of spam and propaganda on twitter. The government has also established dozens of sites with pictures of protesters, asking people to identify them. At least two of these sites that were based abroad have been taken down by hackers sympathetic to Iranians today. 6. There are sporadic reports coming in from Qom at this point. Sources claim that Rafsanjani who was in Qom has had meetings with clerics inside Qom. It has been also reported - but not confirmed - for the past three days that Ayatollah Montazeri has declared a three days' mourning period. It likely is a hoax because it has not been confirmed by anyone. What can be confirmed is that the Council of Combatant Clerics - which includes in its members Rafsanjani and Nateq Noori - have backed the protesters. 7. Hamzeh Ghalebi, head of Mousavi's youth headquarters and Reza Homaye, another reformist and backer of Mousavi, have been arrested. There have been arrests of numerous other reformists and backers of Mousavi, Karoubi, Noori and Rafsanjani. The total number of people that have been arrested is still anyone's guess. Reports indicate somewhere between five and ten thousand. 8. Tuesday has been declared a national strike by Mousavi and his
RE: Iran Re: Someone Must Tell Them
JDG wrote: And why do reports about Iran's nuclear program [any of them, from those which claim disaster looms a few months ahead to those which claim that nuclear capability is nearly a decade away]cause such a lot of alarm? Our intelligence said that the DPRK was a nearly a decade away too. Yeah well, your intelligence also said strange things Iraq's capabilities. It has been a couple of years since I took the pronouncements of the US intelligence agencies seriously. Not because you guys suck, but because it is hard to know what political agenda is moulding the public pronouncements. In any event, Iran still doesn't recognize Israel's right to exist, So? That doesn't mean that Iran is going to bomb Israel, even if it does get the bomb. regularly leads rallies chanting Death to America, So what? With an arsenal as big as yours, you guys really ought not be worried about people chanting slogans, especially when the chanters are not even on the same continent as you. and on top of all that, would have questionable institutional control over any nuclear bombs that it would produce. This is interesting. What do you base this on? Other than that, though, I'm not worried. That's nice. :) Ritu ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Iran to hang teenage girl who fought back against rapists
On Feb 17, 2006, at 12:27 AM, The Fool wrote: http://feministing.com/archives/002691.html Iran to hang teenage girl who fought back against rapists This is pretty horrible stuff. A teenage girl in Iran has been sentenced to death by hanging after she admitted that she accidentally killed a man who was trying to rape her and her niece. Religious fanaticism is a poison. I have examined all the known superstitions of the world, and I do not find in our particular superstition of Christianity one redeeming feature. They are all alike founded on fables and mythology. Millions of innocent men, women and children, since the introduction of Christianity, have been burnt, tortured, fined and imprisoned. What has been the effect of this coercion? To make one half the world fools and the other half hypocrites; to support roguery and error all over the earth. --Thomas Jefferson Letter to William Short I rather doubt that that the Iranians in question are Christian. Dave ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Iran to hang teenage girl who fought back against rapists
Religious fanaticism is a poison. Well, I consider *every* kinf od fanaticism a poison. It means absense of reason, which is one thing which justifies the word sapiens after the word homo. find in our particular superstition of Christianity one redeeming feature. They are all alike founded on fables and mythology. Millions of innocent men, women and children, since the introduction of Christianity, have been burnt, tortured, fined and imprisoned. What has been the effect of this coercion? To make one half the world fools and the other half hypocrites; to support roguery and error all over the earth. --Thomas Jefferson Letter to William Short I rather doubt that that the Iranians in question are Christian. IMHO, a lot of Chritians have learnt from the past mistakes of Christianity. Other religions refuse to learn from the kmistakes of others and prefer to do the mistakes again themselves. However, this is perfectly human behavior. We see it in politics and on the job every single day. Still, that's not an excuse. - Klaus ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Iran and the US
Robert J. Chassell [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: most snipped Moreover, the US war in Iraq has meant that so far Iran is the primary winner... ...What do you think is the likelihood that the US (or its ally, Israel) will attack Iran before the US November 2006 elections? Given the increasing (and ridiculous, but quite scary) rhetoric from Iran's president, hostilities of some sort are grimly possible before the 2008 election; before Nov '06 seems far less likely to me, unless an incident is manufactured. One-in-five by '08 (I'm feeling pessimistic, having just finished O'Dowd's _Bushworld_ -- I don't care for her much, but the trail of deliberate warmongering traced is appallingly convincing.). If you were moving more than a billion US dollars each day internationally, where would you put that money? Wish I had that dilemma to parse! Debbi We Just Live And Die Here Maru }:/ __ Yahoo! DSL Something to write home about. Just $16.99/mo. or less. dsl.yahoo.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
