Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Rush Dougherty via EV]

Here's an Electrek article from Jun. 4th 2018, just a couple months ago -
https://electrek.co/2018/06/04/tesla-model-3-reservations-refunded-report/

Basically it states that there were 450,000 M3 reservations at the end of Q1,
and that maybe  "23 percent of deposits have been refunded". So that means that
there could be up to 346,500 M3 reservations still waiting to be fulfilled.

I'm one of them...

Rush Dougherty
Tucson AZ 85719

> -Original Message-
> From: EV [mailto:ev-boun...@lists.evdl.org] On Behalf Of EVDL Administrator
via
> EV
> Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2018 9:51 AM
> To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List
> Cc: EVDL Administrator
> Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid
>
> On 11 Dec 2018 at 14:18, paul dove via EV wrote:
>
> > There were 6 million vehicles sold in the US in 2017. 50,000 model 3's
> > is a niche.
>
> From July through October of 2018, Tesla sold 72,050 model 3 cars.  In the
same
> period, Toyota sold 87,912 Corollas.  So Tesla is right on their tail, only
18%
> fewer, and a Toyota Corolla isn't what I'd call a niche vehicle.
>
> During that same time, Nissan moved just  5,261 Leaves.  During the same
> period in 2017 (I can't find 2018 sales figures), Chevrolet shifted 24% more
> Corvettes (6,529).  The Corvette is unquestionably a niche car, so if Leaves
sell
> even more slowly, what should we call the Leaf?
>
> I wish it weren't so, but there it is.  The Leaf is a niche vehicle.  But the
good
> news is that Tesla 3 is NOT, at least right now.
>
> Will Tesla 3 sales hold up once the tax credits are gone?  Who knows, but I'll
say
> this, right now Tesla is by miles the EV sales leader.  I never expected to
see
> those kinds of sales numbers for ANY EV this early in the 21st century.
>
> David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
> EVDL Administrator
>
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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Peri Hartman via EV]

I think this is too small a dataset to form a conclusion, though I hope 
it is a positive indication. The biggest unknown is how the market would 
respond if there were 10 or 20 different makers of model 3-like cars. 
Would that mean 10-20 times the sales overall or would it dilute the 
existing sales in a more-or-less fixed size market.


Peri

-- Original Message --
From: "EVDL Administrator via EV" 
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" 
Cc: "EVDL Administrator" 
Sent: 11-Dec-18 8:51:15 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid


On 11 Dec 2018 at 14:18, paul dove via EV wrote:

There were 6 million vehicles sold in the US in 2017. 50,000 model 3's 
is a

niche.


From July through October of 2018, Tesla sold 72,050 model 3 cars.  In 
the
same period, Toyota sold 87,912 Corollas.  So Tesla is right on their 
tail,
only 18% fewer, and a Toyota Corolla isn't what I'd call a niche 
vehicle.


During that same time, Nissan moved just  5,261 Leaves.  During the 
same
period in 2017 (I can't find 2018 sales figures), Chevrolet shifted 24% 
more
Corvettes (6,529).  The Corvette is unquestionably a niche car, so if 
Leaves

sell even more slowly, what should we call the Leaf?

I wish it weren't so, but there it is.  The Leaf is a niche vehicle.  
But

the good news is that Tesla 3 is NOT, at least right now.

Will Tesla 3 sales hold up once the tax credits are gone?  Who knows, 
but
I'll say this, right now Tesla is by miles the EV sales leader.  I 
never
expected to see those kinds of sales numbers for ANY EV this early in 
the

21st century.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Jamie K via EV]

Here's a look at the S-Curve of innovation adoption as applied to 
electric cars around the world (from 2017 so the dots have moved a bit 
since then):


https://cleantechnica.com/2017/09/23/electric-car-s-curve-adoption-country-fun-chart/

More about those groups along the curve:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations

Cheers,
 -Jamie


On 12/11/18 8:50 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV wrote:

Everything starts as a niche.  What counts is growth.  And EV's are growing
at a much higher rate than any other vehicle type.  Geeze, a giant whale
begins as something too small for the eye to see.

Those who overlook the growth of EV's will be eating the dust...

Bob


-Original Message-
From: EV  On Behalf Of paul dove via EV
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2018 9:19 AM
To: ev@lists.evdl.org
Cc: paul dove 
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

There were 6 million vehicles sold in the US in 2017. 50,000 model 3's is a
niche.


 On Monday, December 10, 2018, 11:48:03 AM CST, Willie via EV
 wrote:



On 12/10/18 11:17 AM, EVDL Administrator via EV wrote:


A niche of a niche, because even today EVs themselves are still a
niche item, and IMO will only become a true mass market product with
continued


Perhaps you are not familiar with recent Model 3 sales figures?  By my
definition of "niche", EVs, especially Tesla, have moved well beyond.
Will demand disappear as income tax credits disappear?  Possible, but I
think not.



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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[EVDL Administrator via EV]

On 11 Dec 2018 at 14:18, paul dove via EV wrote:

> There were 6 million vehicles sold in the US in 2017. 50,000 model 3's is a
> niche.

>From July through October of 2018, Tesla sold 72,050 model 3 cars.  In the 
same period, Toyota sold 87,912 Corollas.  So Tesla is right on their tail, 
only 18% fewer, and a Toyota Corolla isn't what I'd call a niche vehicle.  

During that same time, Nissan moved just  5,261 Leaves.  During the same 
period in 2017 (I can't find 2018 sales figures), Chevrolet shifted 24% more 
Corvettes (6,529).  The Corvette is unquestionably a niche car, so if Leaves 
sell even more slowly, what should we call the Leaf?  

I wish it weren't so, but there it is.  The Leaf is a niche vehicle.  But 
the good news is that Tesla 3 is NOT, at least right now.

Will Tesla 3 sales hold up once the tax credits are gone?  Who knows, but 
I'll say this, right now Tesla is by miles the EV sales leader.  I never 
expected to see those kinds of sales numbers for ANY EV this early in the 
21st century.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Robert Bruninga via EV]

Everything starts as a niche.  What counts is growth.  And EV's are growing
at a much higher rate than any other vehicle type.  Geeze, a giant whale
begins as something too small for the eye to see.

Those who overlook the growth of EV's will be eating the dust...

Bob


-Original Message-
From: EV  On Behalf Of paul dove via EV
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2018 9:19 AM
To: ev@lists.evdl.org
Cc: paul dove 
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

There were 6 million vehicles sold in the US in 2017. 50,000 model 3's is a
niche.


On Monday, December 10, 2018, 11:48:03 AM CST, Willie via EV
 wrote:



On 12/10/18 11:17 AM, EVDL Administrator via EV wrote:

> A niche of a niche, because even today EVs themselves are still a
> niche item, and IMO will only become a true mass market product with
> continued

Perhaps you are not familiar with recent Model 3 sales figures?  By my
definition of "niche", EVs, especially Tesla, have moved well beyond.
Will demand disappear as income tax credits disappear?  Possible, but I
think not.



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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Willie via EV]

On 12/11/18 8:18 AM, paul dove wrote:
There were 6 million vehicles sold in the US in 2017. 50,000 model 3's 
is a niche.


I believe 50,000 in 2017 is for all models; there were very few Model 3s 
sold in 2017.  I am not intimately familiar with car sales numbers but I 
googled up this:


http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/tesla/

Note that for the most recent three months available/estimated, monthly 
sales are above 20,000.


I contend that ~150,000 Teslas for 2018 and ~300,000 for 2019 are 
reasonable expectations.  Perhaps on the low side.

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[paul dove via EV]

There were 6 million vehicles sold in the US in 2017. 50,000 model 3's is a 
niche.
 

On Monday, December 10, 2018, 11:48:03 AM CST, Willie via EV 
 wrote:  
 
 

On 12/10/18 11:17 AM, EVDL Administrator via EV wrote:

> A niche of a niche, because even today EVs themselves are still a niche
> item, and IMO will only become a true mass market product with continued

Perhaps you are not familiar with recent Model 3 sales figures?  By my 
definition of "niche", EVs, especially Tesla, have moved well beyond. 
Will demand disappear as income tax credits disappear?  Possible, but I 
think not.



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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[EVDL Administrator via EV]

On 10 Dec 2018 at 11:47, Willie via EV wrote:

> Perhaps you are not familiar with recent Model 3 sales figures?

Correct, I wasn't, until I read your response and looked them up.

>From July through August, Tesla sold 72,050 Model 3s in the US.  (Or so they 
claim.  Rather suspiciously, the sales numbers I found end in even zeroes 
for every month.)

Assuming that's accurate, I have to admit, it's pretty impressive.  

Comparing those sales to those of a few mainstream ICE sedans:

18% fewer than 87,912 Toyota Corollas 
35% fewer than 111,006 Toyota Camrys
29% fewer than 101,244 Honda Civics 
29% fewer than 100,814 Honda Accords
112% more than 34,005 Hyundai Sonatas

... to a couple of other "green" vehicles:

148% more than 29,060 Toyota Prii
1,270% more than 5,261 Nissan Leaves

... and to a "brown" vehicle:

76% fewer than 298,288 Ford F-series pickups

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Jeff Mccabe via EV]

 There isn't just one road to alternative transportation, just like theirs not 
just one source of alternative energy ! Theirs room for all.  The more choices 
we have the better.
Jeff 
On Monday, December 10, 2018, 6:53:15 AM PST, Robert Bruninga via EV 
 wrote:  
 
 > I can only say that my attempts of education here have failed.

Because its irrelevant to selling EV's to the masses which is what we must
do to protect our air.

> Every time I talk to my friends at Tesla about solar vehicles they shut up
> like clams.

Because it is a stupid idea and they are being nice to not just roll their
eyes...

> Higher ups at Tesla are solar team alums [and] know what it takes...

And they also understand it is totally unmarketable to the American public.

> I hope ... everyone will realize that solar vehicles are indeed possible
> technically.

Of course they are, but totally lacking in a business model to sell enough
to change the word which MUST  happen.

And Yes, I BUILT one.  I added 220 watts on my solar prius, but I tell
people that it was fun but less than 0.001 economically practical!  I have
100 times more solar area on my roof at home AND the large format solar
panels coast one TENTH those on the prius for a net economic stupidity of
1000 to 1.

All this fluff over making solar cars is just distracting people from the
need to buy EVs NOW.  We are ten years since EV's were good enough, and now
they are better, faster, cleaner, cheaper to buy, cheaper to operate and
cheaper to maintain.

ALL WE NEED is an educated public and less fluff and chasing at windmills to
distract them.

Lets put our effort into educating the public about the 45 EVs we have now
and the 250 planned over the next 7 years and stop distracting them with
fluff...

Bob
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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Willie via EV]

On 12/10/18 11:23 AM, Peri Hartman via EV wrote:
I think there might be a reasonable market for a Stella-like vehicle, 
except without the solar panels. Blasphemous, I know :)


With a relatively small battery and basic interior finishes, could the 
retail price be around $15K? If so, it could be really tempting to a 
whole new market sector. And, a more expensive model could be sold with 
solar panels for those who want to have infinite range.



A GREAT idea!  Though I think a PVless Stella might find a market with a 
higher price, perhaps $25k.  Even more if our tax credit survives.  I 
recall what great values imievs were at $15k-$25k before incentives.

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Willie via EV]

On 12/10/18 11:17 AM, EVDL Administrator via EV wrote:


A niche of a niche, because even today EVs themselves are still a niche
item, and IMO will only become a true mass market product with continued


Perhaps you are not familiar with recent Model 3 sales figures?  By my 
definition of "niche", EVs, especially Tesla, have moved well beyond. 
Will demand disappear as income tax credits disappear?  Possible, but I 
think not.




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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Peri Hartman via EV]

I think there might be a reasonable market for a Stella-like vehicle, 
except without the solar panels. Blasphemous, I know :)


But, imagine a family sized car that goes 400 miles per charge for 
practically no cost. Yes, it needs A/C, heat, good music system, cup 
holders. Those will obviously reduce the range somewhat. But the biggest 
factor will be the full safety system. Side air bags, door 
reinforcement, crumple zone. Maybe the Stella already accommodates 
these, I don't know.


With a relatively small battery and basic interior finishes, could the 
retail price be around $15K? If so, it could be really tempting to a 
whole new market sector. And, a more expensive model could be sold with 
solar panels for those who want to have infinite range.


Peri

-- Original Message --
From: "EVDL Administrator via EV" 
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" 
Cc: "EVDL Administrator" 
Sent: 10-Dec-18 9:17:11 AM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid


On 10 Dec 2018 at 9:22, Willie via EV wrote:


they will be a niche market and very unlikely to expand beyond the
niche category.


A niche of a niche, because even today EVs themselves are still a niche
item, and IMO will only become a true mass market product with 
continued
strong promotion from activist governments.  Keep your fingers crossed 
for

educated, forward-looking voters and legislators in Asia and Europe!

Pushing even further into that niche corner with onboard solar EVs 
(OBSEVs,
if you like) may indeed waste valuable resources that we could be 
spending

to further promote EVs and stationary, offboard solar charging.

That said ...

It's no secret here that I have my own personal concerns with Tesla's 
cars.

But think about it.  We're all at a place where I can say "I want a
commercial EV, but I don't want to buy a Tesla."  We have EV CHOICE!  
Twenty

years ago, who would have expected it?

For that, we can give a great deal of credit to Musk and Tesla for 
showing
drivers AND GOVERNMENTS what was possible with EVs.  Good thing he 
didn't
listen to the EV-naysayers 15 years ago, and give up commercializing 
the

original Roadster.

I'm skeptical that Stella and other similar OBSEV efforts are going to 
pay
off in the mass (or even niche) market any time soon, if ever.  I guess 
that
makes me an OBSEV naysayer today.  So, Stella team, don't listen to me 
and

the other cynics!  Go for it.  You won't know if you're the next Tesla
unless you try.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[EVDL Administrator via EV]

On 10 Dec 2018 at 9:22, Willie via EV wrote:

> they will be a niche market and very unlikely to expand beyond the
> niche category. 

A niche of a niche, because even today EVs themselves are still a niche 
item, and IMO will only become a true mass market product with continued 
strong promotion from activist governments.  Keep your fingers crossed for 
educated, forward-looking voters and legislators in Asia and Europe!

Pushing even further into that niche corner with onboard solar EVs (OBSEVs, 
if you like) may indeed waste valuable resources that we could be spending 
to further promote EVs and stationary, offboard solar charging.  

That said ...

It's no secret here that I have my own personal concerns with Tesla's cars.  
But think about it.  We're all at a place where I can say "I want a 
commercial EV, but I don't want to buy a Tesla."  We have EV CHOICE!  Twenty 
years ago, who would have expected it?

For that, we can give a great deal of credit to Musk and Tesla for showing 
drivers AND GOVERNMENTS what was possible with EVs.  Good thing he didn't 
listen to the EV-naysayers 15 years ago, and give up commercializing the 
original Roadster.

I'm skeptical that Stella and other similar OBSEV efforts are going to pay 
off in the mass (or even niche) market any time soon, if ever.  I guess that 
makes me an OBSEV naysayer today.  So, Stella team, don't listen to me and 
the other cynics!  Go for it.  You won't know if you're the next Tesla 
unless you try.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Willie via EV]

On 12/10/18 8:53 AM, Robert Bruninga via EV wrote:


Lets put our effort into educating the public about the 45 EVs we have now
and the 250 planned over the next 7 years and stop distracting them with
fluff...


Bob, of course most of what you say is true.  But, I don't see solar 
cars as distracting.  Obviously, as you point out, they will be a niche 
market and very unlikely to expand beyond the niche category.  But I 
wish to encourage development.  I was in the market for an early Leaf. 
And for an early Tesla.  And for a Model 3.  I am in the market for a 
solar car and will buy one if compelling.


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Re: [EVDL] EVLN: Musk walked-back on PV roof> its stupid

[Robert Bruninga via EV]

> I can only say that my attempts of education here have failed.

Because its irrelevant to selling EV's to the masses which is what we must
do to protect our air.

> Every time I talk to my friends at Tesla about solar vehicles they shut up
> like clams.

Because it is a stupid idea and they are being nice to not just roll their
eyes...

> Higher ups at Tesla are solar team alums [and] know what it takes...

And they also understand it is totally unmarketable to the American public.

> I hope ... everyone will realize that solar vehicles are indeed possible
> technically.

Of course they are, but totally lacking in a business model to sell enough
to change the word which MUST  happen.

And Yes, I BUILT one.  I added 220 watts on my solar prius, but I tell
people that it was fun but less than 0.001 economically practical!  I have
100 times more solar area on my roof at home AND the large format solar
panels coast one TENTH those on the prius for a net economic stupidity of
1000 to 1.

All this fluff over making solar cars is just distracting people from the
need to buy EVs NOW.  We are ten years since EV's were good enough, and now
they are better, faster, cleaner, cheaper to buy, cheaper to operate and
cheaper to maintain.

ALL WE NEED is an educated public and less fluff and chasing at windmills to
distract them.

Lets put our effort into educating the public about the 45 EVs we have now
and the 250 planned over the next 7 years and stop distracting them with
fluff...

Bob
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